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We develop new algorithms for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, combining recent developments in transfer learning for neural networks with insights from the causal inference literature. By taking advantage of transfer learning,…

A methodology that seeks to enhance model prediction performance is presented. The method involves generating multiple auxiliary models that capture relationships between attributes as a function of each other. Such information serves to…

Attitudes can have a profound impact on socially relevant behaviours, such as voting. However, this effect is not uniform across situations or individuals, and it is at present difficult to predict whether attitudes will predict behaviour…

Incorporating every annotator's perspective is crucial for unbiased data modeling. Annotator fatigue and changing opinions over time can distort dataset annotations. To combat this, we propose to learn a more accurate representation of…

News has traditionally been well researched, with studies ranging from sentiment analysis to event detection and topic tracking. We extend the focus to two surprisingly under-researched aspects of news: \emph{framing} and \emph{predictive…

Network models are an increasingly popular way to abstract complex psychological phenomena. While the study of the structure of network models has led to many important insights, little attention is paid to how well they predict…

In the months leading up to political elections in the United States, forecasts are widespread and take on multiple forms, including projections of what party will win the popular vote, state ratings, and predictions of vote margins at the…

Recent work has applied link prediction to large heterogeneous legal citation networks \new{with rich meta-features}. We find that this approach can be improved by including edge dropout and feature concatenation for the learning of more…

Predicting the economy's short-term dynamics -- a vital input to economic agents' decision-making process -- often uses lagged indicators in linear models. This is typically sufficient during normal times but could prove inadequate during…

Quantification of the political leaning of online news articles can aid in understanding the dynamics of political ideology in social groups and measures to mitigating them. However, predicting the accurate political leaning of a news…

Artificial Intelligence models are increasingly used in manufacturing to inform decision-making. Responsible decision-making requires accurate forecasts and an understanding of the models' behavior. Furthermore, the insights into models'…

Many internet platforms that collect behavioral big data use it to predict user behavior for internal purposes and for their business customers (e.g., advertisers, insurers, security forces, governments, political consulting firms) who…

The act of explaining across two parties is a feedback loop, where one provides information on what needs to be explained and the other provides an explanation relevant to this information. We apply a reinforcement learning framework which…

The study of the stock market with the attraction of machine learning approaches is a major direction for revealing hidden market regularities. This knowledge contributes to a profound understanding of financial market dynamics and getting…

Context information around words helps in determining their actual meaning, for example "networks" used in contexts of artificial neural networks or biological neuron networks. Generative topic models infer topic-word distributions, taking…

Modeling thematic fit (a verb--argument compositional semantics task) currently requires a very large burden of labeled data. We take a linguistically machine-annotated large corpus and replace corpus layers with output from higher-quality,…

In this paper we propose a novel method to forecast the result of elections using only official results of previous ones. It is based on the voter model with stubborn nodes and uses theoretical results developed in a previous work of ours.…

We propose a novel supervised learning approach for political ideology prediction (PIP) that is capable of predicting out-of-distribution inputs. This problem is motivated by the fact that manual data-labeling is expensive, while…

Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic. This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good enough, core…

Document-level models for information extraction tasks like slot-filling are flexible: they can be applied to settings where information is not necessarily localized in a single sentence. For example, key features of a diagnosis in a…