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The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…
In this paper, we predict severity of extreme weather events (tropical storms, hurricanes, etc.) using buoy data time series variables such as wind speed and air temperature. The prediction/forecasting method is based on various forecasting…
This study addresses the prediction of geomagnetic disturbances by exploiting machine learning techniques. Specifically, the Long-Short Term Memory recurrent neural network, which is particularly suited for application over long time…
Very short-term convective storm forecasting, termed nowcasting, has long been an important issue and has attracted substantial interest. Existing nowcasting methods rely principally on radar images and are limited in terms of nowcasting…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most geoeffective space weather phenomena, being associated with large geomagnetic storms, having the potential to cause disturbances to telecommunication, satellite network disruptions, power grid…
This work proposes an innovative approach using machine learning to predict extreme events in time series of chaotic dynamical systems. The research focuses on the time series of the H\'enon map, a two-dimensional model known for its…
A storm is a type of extreme weather. Therefore, forecasting the path of a storm is extremely important for protecting human life and property. However, storm forecasting is very challenging because storm trajectories frequently change. In…
Extreme events jeopardize power network operations, causing beyond-design failures and massive supply interruptions. Existing market designs fail to internalize and systematically assess the risk of extreme and rare events. Efficiently…
Main problems of magnetic storm prediction and causes of low efficiency of medium-term prognosis are discussed. It is supposed, that possible way of their solving is searching for poor-investigated features of solar wind (for instance,…
Overhead distribution lines play a vital role in distributing electricity, however, their freestanding nature makes them vulnerable to extreme weather conditions and resultant disruption of supply. The current UK regulation of power…
Standard supervised learning procedures are validated against a test set that is assumed to have come from the same distribution as the training data. However, in many problems, the test data may have come from a different distribution. We…
Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard…
One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid when integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single…
The reliable power system operation is a major goal for electric utilities, which requires the accurate reliability forecasting to minimize the duration of power interruptions. Since weather conditions are usually the leading causes for…
Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…
Accurate weather prediction is essential for many aspects of life, notably the early warning of extreme weather events such as rainstorms. Short-term predictions of these events rely on forecasts from numerical weather models, in which,…
Drought is a frequent and costly natural disaster in California, with major negative impacts on agricultural production and water resource availability, particularly groundwater. This study investigated the performance of applying different…
Evaluating resilience in electric distribution systems under severe weather requires models that can connect network topology, hazard simulation, fragility modeling, restoration assumptions, repair strategy, and downstream consequences.…
When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…