Related papers: Asset Price Bubbles: An Option-based Indicator
We present a numerically efficient approach for learning a risk-neutral measure for paths of simulated spot and option prices up to a finite horizon under convex transaction costs and convex trading constraints. This approach can then be…
Pertaining to Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE), this work presents two models for the rise and downfall of speculative bubbles through an exchange price fixing based on double auction mechanisms. The first model is based on a…
This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed…
High-frequency data observed on the prices of financial assets are commonly modeled by diffusion processes with micro-structure noise, and realized volatility-based methods are often used to estimate integrated volatility. For problems…
We propose a continuous-time model of trading with heterogeneous beliefs. Risk-neutral agents face quadratic costs-of-carry on positions and thus their marginal valuations decrease with the size of their position, as it would be the case…
There is vast empirical evidence that given a set of assumptions on the real-world dynamics of an asset, the European options on this asset are not efficiently priced in options markets, giving rise to arbitrage opportunities. We study…
We propose a new estimator for the spot covariance matrix of a multi-dimensional continuous semi-martingale log asset price process which is subject to noise and non-synchronous observations. The estimator is constructed based on a local…
Much research has been conducted arguing that tipping points at which complex systems experience phase transitions are difficult to identify. To test the existence of tipping points in financial markets, based on the alternating offer…
The determination of acceptability prices of contingent claims requires the choice of a stochastic model for the underlying asset price dynamics. Given this model, optimal bid and ask prices can be found by stochastic optimization. However,…
We propose a novel model, the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model (HLPPL), to the problem of quantifying and detecting financial bubbles, an ever-fascinating one for academics and practitioners alike. Bubble labels are generated using a…
We consider the problem of option pricing under stochastic volatility models, focusing on the linear approximation of the two processes known as exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Stein-Stein. Indeed, we show they admit the same limit…
Option prices encode the market's collective outlook through implied density and implied volatility. An explicit link between implied density and implied volatility translates the risk-neutrality of the former into conditions on the latter…
The paper studies derivative asset analysis in structural credit risk models where the asset value of the firm is not fully observable. It is shown that in order to compute the price dynamics of traded securities one needs to solve a…
We show how inter-asset dependence information derived from market prices of options can lead to improved model-free price bounds for multi-asset derivatives. Depending on the type of the traded option, we either extract correlation…
In this paper we study the evolution of asset price bubbles driven by contagion effects spreading among investors via a random matching mechanism in a discrete-time version of the liquidity based model of [25]. To this scope, we extend the…
The general method is proposed for constructing a family of martingale measures for a wide class of evolution of risky assets. The sufficient conditions are formulated for the evolution of risky assets under which the family of equivalent…
It is well-known that, in the Bachelier model, when asset prices and volatilities are uncorrelated, the implied volatility coincides with the fair value of the volatility swap. In this paper, via classical It\^o calculus and Taylor…
It has been recently shown that spot volatilities can be very well modeled by rough stochastic volatility type dynamics. In such models, the log-volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter smaller than 1/2. This…
Episodes of market crashes have fascinated economists for centuries. Although many academics, practitioners and policy makers have studied questions related to collapsing asset price bubbles, there is little consensus yet about their causes…
We derive the short-maturity asymptotics for prices of options on realized variance in local-stochastic volatility models. We consider separately the short-maturity asymptotics for out-of-the-money and in-the-money options cases. The…