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Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

We study using large deviation theory the fluctuations of time-integrated functionals or observables of the unbiased random walk evolving on Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graphs, and construct a modified, biased random walk that explains how these…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-03-06 Francesco Coghi , Jules Morand , Hugo Touchette

Many applications in networked control require intermittent access of a controller to a system, as in event-triggered systems or information constrained control applications. Motivated by such applications and extending previous work on…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-30 Ramiro Zurkowski , Serdar Yüksel , Tamás Linder

Markov chains can be used to generate samples whose distribution approximates a given target distribution. The quality of the samples of such Markov chains can be measured by the discrepancy between the empirical distribution of the samples…

Computation · Statistics 2016-01-18 Josef Dick , Daniel Rudolf , Houying Zhu

We examine two analytical characterisation of the metastable behavior of a Markov chain. The first one expressed in terms of its transition probabilities, and the second one in terms of its large deviations rate functional. Consider a…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-07 L. Bertini , D. Gabrielli , C. Landim

We describe a simple form of importance sampling designed to bound and compute large-deviation rate functions for time-extensive dynamical observables in continuous-time Markov chains. We start with a model, defined by a set of rates, and a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-12-04 Daniel Jacobson , Stephen Whitelam

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

We provide rigorous and exact results characterizing the statistics of spike trains in a network of leaky integrate and fire neurons, where time is discrete and where neurons are submitted to noise, without restriction on the synaptic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-05-18 B. Cessac

Maximum entropy (maxEnt) inference of state probabilities using state-dependent constraints is popular in the study of complex systems. In stochastic dynamical systems, the effect of state space topology and path-dependent constraints on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-10-28 Purushottam D. Dixit

Adaptive Markov chains are an important class of Monte Carlo methods for sampling from probability distributions. The time evolution of adaptive algorithms depends on past samples, and thus these algorithms are non-Markovian. Although there…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-02 Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

A basic result of large deviations theory is Sanov's theorem, which states that the sequence of empirical measures of independent and identically distributed samples satisfies the large deviation principle with rate function given by…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-17 Markus Fischer

Maximum Entropy models can be inferred from large data-sets to uncover how collective dynamics emerge from local interactions. Here, such models are employed to investigate neurons recorded by multielectrode arrays in the human and monkey…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-11 Trang-Anh Nghiem , Bartosz Telenczuk , Olivier Marre , Alain Destexhe , Ulisse Ferrari

We address the problem of finding patterns from multi-neuronal spike trains that give us insights into the multi-neuronal codes used in the brain and help us design better brain computer interfaces. We focus on the synchronous firings of…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2010-06-09 Raajay Viswanathan , P. S. Sastry , K. P. Unnikrishnan

In this paper we investigate the continuum limits of a class of Markov chains. The investigation of such limits is motivated by the desire to model very large networks. We show that under some conditions, a sequence of Markov chains…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2011-06-22 Yang Zhang , Edwin K. P. Chong , Jan Hannig , Donald Estep

We propose an analytical technique to study large fluctuations and switching from internal noise in complex networks. Using order-disorder kinetics as a generic example, we construct and analyze the most probable, or optimal path of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-07 Jason Hindes , Ira B. Schwartz

We briefly review and highlight the consequences of rigorous and exact results obtained in \cite{cessac:10}, characterizing the statistics of spike trains in a network of leaky Integrate-and-Fire neurons, where time is discrete and where…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2010-08-31 Bruno Cessac , Hassan Nasser , Juan-Carlos Vasquez

Stochastic processes with random reinforced relocations have been introduced in the physics literature to model animal foraging behaviour. Such a process evolves as a Markov process, except at random relocation times, when it chooses a time…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-12 Erion-Stelios Boci , Cécile Mailler

We prove a sample path Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for a class of jump processes whose rates are not uniformly Lipschitz continuous in phase space. Building on it we further establish the corresponding Wentzell-Freidlin (W-F) (infinite…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-24 Andrea Agazzi , Amir Dembo , Jean-Pierre Eckmann

A large deviations principle is established for the joint law of the empirical measure and the flow measure of a renewal Markov process on a finite graph. We do not assume any bound on the arrival times, allowing heavy tailed distributions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-18 Mauro Mariani , Lorenzo Zambotti

We provide explicit nonasymptotic estimates for the rate of convergence of empirical means of Markov chains, together with a Gaussian or exponential control on the deviations of empirical means. These estimates hold under a "positive…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-11 Aldéric Joulin , Yann Ollivier
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