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Simulation-based inference techniques are indispensable for parameter estimation of mechanistic and simulable models with intractable likelihoods. While traditional statistical approaches like approximate Bayesian computation and Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-08 Ryan P. Kelly , David J. Nott , David T. Frazier , David J. Warne , Chris Drovandi

Neural likelihood estimation methods for simulation-based inference can suffer from performance degradation when the modeled data is very high-dimensional or lies along a lower-dimensional manifold, which is due to the inability of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-12 Simon Dirmeier , Carlo Albert , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Bayesian inference without the likelihood evaluation, or likelihood-free inference, has been a key research topic in simulation studies for gaining quantitatively validated simulation models on real-world datasets. As the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Dongjun Kim , Kyungwoo Song , YoonYeong Kim , Yongjin Shin , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon , Weonyoung Joo

State-space models (SSMs) are powerful probabilistic tools for modeling time-varying systems with latent dynamics. Inference in SSMs involves the estimation of latent states and parameters. In this work, we focus on parameter inference,…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-22 Kostas Tsampourakis , Víctor Elvira

We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-20 Manuel Glöckler , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-22 Conor Durkan , George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

We introduce the sequential neural posterior and likelihood approximation (SNPLA) algorithm. SNPLA is a normalizing flows-based algorithm for inference in implicit models, and therefore is a simulation-based inference method that only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Samuel Wiqvist , Jes Frellsen , Umberto Picchini

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Yifei Xiong , Xiliang Yang , Sanguo Zhang , Zhijian He

Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations remains a significant challenge in many scientific domains. We propose normalizing flow regression (NFR), a novel offline inference method for approximating posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-17 Chengkun Li , Bobby Huggins , Petrus Mikkola , Luigi Acerbi

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference methods yield posterior approximations for simulator models with intractable likelihood. Recently, many works trained neural networks to approximate either the intractable likelihood or the posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-01 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Ritabrata Dutta

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is a popular method for estimating the parameter posterior distribution for complex statistical models and stochastic processes that possess a computationally intractable likelihood function. Instead of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-07-26 Ziwen An , Leah F South , Christopher Drovandi

We introduce Sequential Neural Posterior Score Estimation (SNPSE), a score-based method for Bayesian inference in simulator-based models. Our method, inspired by the remarkable success of score-based methods in generative modelling,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Louis Sharrock , Jack Simons , Song Liu , Mark Beaumont

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now an established method for conducting approximate Bayesian inference in models where, due to the intractability of the likelihood function, exact Bayesian approaches are either infeasible or…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-12 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi

The marginal likelihood, or evidence, plays a central role in Bayesian model selection, yet remains notoriously challenging to compute in likelihood-free settings. While Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) techniques such as Sequential Neural…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-14 Paul Bastide , Arnaud Estoup , Jean-Michel Marin , Julien Stoehr

Training an energy-based model (EBM) with maximum likelihood is challenging due to the intractable normalisation constant. Traditional methods rely on expensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to estimate the gradient of logartihm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Hugo Senetaire , Paul Jeha , Pierre-Alexandre Mattei , Jes Frellsen

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now a well established method for performing approximate Bayesian parameter estimation for simulation-based models that do not possess a tractable likelihood function. BSL approximates an intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2019-10-04 Ziwen An , David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi

State-of-the-art neural network-based methods for learning summary statistics have delivered promising results for simulation-based likelihood-free parameter inference. Existing approaches require density estimation as a post-processing…

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a common name for an emerging family of approaches that infer the model parameters when the likelihood is intractable. Existing SBI methods either approximate the likelihood, such as Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Theo Gruner , Boris Belousov , Fabio Muratore , Daniel Palenicek , Jan Peters
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