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Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Sequential neuronal activity underlies a wide range of processes in the brain. Neuroscientific evidence for neuronal sequences has been reported in domains as diverse as perception, motor control, speech, spatial navigation and memory.…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-04-03 Sascha Frölich , Dimitrije Marković , Stefan J. Kiebel

Logistic regression involving high-dimensional covariates is a practically important problem. Often the goal is variable selection, i.e., determining which few of the many covariates are associated with the binary response. Unfortunately,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yiqi Tang , Ryan Martin

Referring to objects in a natural and unambiguous manner is crucial for effective human-robot interaction. Previous research on learning-based referring expressions has focused primarily on comprehension tasks, while generating referring…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-04-20 Fethiye Irmak Doğan , Sinan Kalkan , Iolanda Leite

Comparing mathematical models offers a means to evaluate competing scientific theories. However, exact methods of model calibration are not applicable to many probabilistic models which simulate high-dimensional spatio-temporal data.…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-13 Robert A McDonald , Helen M Byrne , Heather A Harrington , Thomas Thorne , Bernadette J Stolz

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-02 Michele Peruzzi , David B. Dunson

Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-06 Rahul G. Krishnan , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Spatial ecological networks are widely used to model interactions between georeferenced biological entities (e.g., populations or communities). The analysis of such data often leads to a two-step approach where groups containing similar…

Applications · Statistics 2014-02-24 Vincent Miele , Franck Picard , Stéphane Dray

Bayesian optimization is normally performed within fixed variable bounds. In cases like hyperparameter tuning for machine learning algorithms, setting the variable bounds is not trivial. It is hard to guarantee that any fixed bounds will…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-15 Wei Chen , Mark Fuge

We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Isaac Lavine , Michael Lindon , Mike West

Deep directed generative models have attracted much attention recently due to their generative modeling nature and powerful data representation ability. In this paper, we review different structures of deep directed generative models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-16 Siqi Nie , Meng Zheng , Qiang Ji

We present a Bayesian machine learning architecture that combines a physically motivated parametrization and an analytic error model for the likelihood with a deep generative model providing a powerful data-driven prior for complex signals.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-12-10 Francois Lanusse , Peter Melchior , Fred Moolekamp

We introduce a generic, compositional and interpretable class of generative world models that supports open-ended learning agents. This is a sparse class of Bayesian networks capable of approximating a broad range of stochastic processes,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Lancelot Da Costa

Affordances are fundamental descriptors of relationships between actions, objects and effects. They provide the means whereby a robot can predict effects, recognize actions, select objects and plan its behavior according to desired goals.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Pedro Osório , Alexandre Bernardino , Ruben Martinez-Cantin , José Santos-Victor

Mobile robots rely on maps to navigate through an environment. In the absence of any map, the robots must build the map online from partial observations as they move in the environment. Traditional methods build a map using only direct…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Vishnu Dutt Sharma

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become increasingly prominent as a method for conducting parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, most notably those characterized by an intractable likelihood function.…

Humans are expert explorers. Understanding the computational cognitive mechanisms that support this efficiency can advance the study of the human mind and enable more efficient exploration algorithms. We hypothesize that humans explore new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Sugandha Sharma , Aidan Curtis , Marta Kryven , Josh Tenenbaum , Ila Fiete

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem and introduce a novel point-process-based prediction algorithm. Spatio-temporal prediction is extensively studied in Machine Learning literature due to its critical real-life applications such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-17 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman S. Kozat

The increase in complexity of autonomous systems is accompanied by a need of data-driven development and validation strategies. Advances in computer graphics and cloud clusters have opened the way to massive parallel high fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-05 Osama Maqbool , Jürgen Roßmann

Inference for mechanistic models is challenging because of nonlinear interactions between model parameters and a lack of identifiability. Here we focus on a specific class of mechanistic models, which we term stable differential equations.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-13 Philip Maybank , Ingo Bojak , Richard G. Everitt