Related papers: On a Metropolis-Hastings importance sampling estim…
Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) methodology for approximating integrals, for instance in the context of Bayesian inference. In IS, the samples are simulated from the so-called proposal distribution, and the choice of…
Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…
The multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm is a generalization of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which the transition kernel uses a compound proposal consisting of multiple candidate draws. Since its seminal paper there have been…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…
Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data.…
Couplings play a central role in the analysis of Markov chain convergence and in the construction of novel Markov chain Monte Carlo estimators, diagnostics, and variance reduction techniques. The set of possible couplings is often…
This paper proposes a new type of recurrence where we divide the Markov chains into intervals that start when the chain enters into a subset A, then sample another subset B far away from A and end when the chain again return to A. The…
It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…
A Riemannian geometric framework for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed where using the Fisher-Rao metric on the manifold of probability density functions (pdfs), informed proposal densities for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms…
In this manuscript, inspired by a simpler reformulation of primary sample space Metropolis light transport, we derive a novel family of general Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms called charted Metropolis-Hastings, that introduces the…
We introduce a Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently compute transport properties of chaotic dynamical systems. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique that favors trajectories in the tail of the distribution of displacements,…
The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…
When an unbiased estimator of the likelihood is used within a Metropolis--Hastings chain, it is necessary to trade off the number of Monte Carlo samples used to construct this estimator against the asymptotic variances of averages computed…
The Metropolis algorithm involves producing a Markov chain to converge to a specified target density $\pi$. In order to improve its efficiency, we can use the Rejection-Free version of the Metropolis algorithm, which avoids the inefficiency…
Betweenness centrality is an important index widely used in different domains such as social networks, traffic networks and the world wide web. However, even for mid-size networks that have only a few hundreds thousands vertices, it is…
Pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from intractable distributions have gained recent interest and have been theoretically studied in considerable depth. Their main appeal is that they are exact, in the sense that…
In recent years, various interacting particle samplers have been developed to sample from complex target distributions, such as those found in Bayesian inverse problems. These samplers are motivated by the mean-field limit perspective and…
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful and commonly used family of numerical methods for sampling from complex probability distributions. As applications of these methods increase in size and complexity, the need for efficient…
We introduce and implement an importance-sampling Monte Carlo algorithm to study systems of globally-coupled oscillators. Our computational method efficiently obtains estimates of the tails of the distribution of various measures of…
We consider versions of the Metropolis algorithm which avoid the inefficiency of rejections. We first illustrate that a natural Uniform Selection Algorithm might not converge to the correct distribution. We then analyse the use of Markov…