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Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components -- proper calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Teodora Popordanoska , Sebastian G. Gruber , Aleksei Tiulpin , Florian Buettner , Matthew B. Blaschko

We develop a fully non-parametric, easy-to-use, and powerful test for the missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption on the missingness mechanism of a dataset. The test compares distributions of different missing patterns on random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-01 Meta-Lina Spohn , Jeffrey Näf , Loris Michel , Nicolai Meinshausen

Calibrated probabilistic classifiers are models whose predicted probabilities can directly be interpreted as uncertainty estimates. It has been shown recently that deep neural networks are poorly calibrated and tend to output overconfident…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-17 Teodora Popordanoska , Raphael Sayer , Matthew B. Blaschko

We propose new model selection criteria based on generalized ridge estimators dominating the maximum likelihood estimator under the squared risk and the Kullback-Leibler risk in multivariate linear regression. Our model selection criteria…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-08 Yuichi Mori , Taiji Suzuki

In statistical classification/multiple hypothesis testing and machine learning, a model distribution estimated from the training data is usually applied to replace the unknown true distribution in the Bayes decision rule, which introduces a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Zijian Yang , Vahe Eminyan , Ralf Schlüter , Hermann Ney

Knowledge distillation (KD), transferring knowledge from a cumbersome teacher model to a lightweight student model, has been investigated to design efficient neural architectures. Generally, the objective function of KD is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Taehyeon Kim , Jaehoon Oh , NakYil Kim , Sangwook Cho , Se-Young Yun

We study density estimation in Kullback-Leibler divergence: given an i.i.d. sample from an unknown density $p^\star$, the goal is to construct an estimator $\widehat{p}$ such that $\mathrm{KL}(p^\star,\widehat{p})$ is small with high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Spencer Compton , Gábor Lugosi , Jaouad Mourtada , Jian Qian , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

In knowledge distillation, a primary focus has been on transforming and balancing multiple distillation components. In this work, we emphasize the importance of thoroughly examining each distillation component, as we observe that not all…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Zao Zhang , Huaming Chen , Pei Ning , Nan Yang , Dong Yuan

This letter provides an adaptive resampling method. It determines the number of particles to resample so that the Kullback-Leibler distance (KLD) between distribution of particles before resampling and after resampling does not exceed a…

Applications · Statistics 2017-07-31 Tiancheng Li , Shudong Sun , Tariq Pervez Sattar

We derive a new discrepancy statistic for measuring differences between two probability distributions based on combining Stein's identity with the reproducing kernel Hilbert space theory. We apply our result to test how well a probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-04 Qiang Liu , Jason D. Lee , Michael I. Jordan

Positivity of the prior probability of Kullback-Leibler neighborhood around the true density, commonly known as the Kullback-Leibler property, plays a fundamental role in posterior consistency. A popular prior for Bayesian estimation is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-05-08 Yuefeng Wu , Subhashis Ghosal

We study the problem of spectrum estimation from transmission data of a known phantom. The goal is to reconstruct an x-ray spectrum that can accurately model the x-ray transmission curves and reflects a realistic shape of the typical energy…

Medical Physics · Physics 2021-07-14 Wooseok Ha , Emil Y. Sidky , Rina Foygel Barber , Taly Gilat Schmidt , Xiaochuan Pan

We study the problem of nonnegative rank-one approximation of a nonnegative tensor, and show that the globally optimal solution that minimizes the generalized Kullback-Leibler divergence can be efficiently obtained, i.e., it is not NP-hard.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2017-11-22 Kejun Huang , Nicholas D. Sidiropoulos

Data collection is a critical step in statistical inference and data science, and the goal of statistical experimental design (ED) is to find the data collection setup that can provide most information for the inference. In this work we…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-01 Ziqiao Ao , Jinglai Li

We study the problem of model selection type aggregation with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence for various probabilistic models. Rather than considering a convex combination of the initial estimators $f_1, \ldots, f_N$, our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-22 Cristina Butucea , Jean-François Delmas , Anne Dutfoy , Richard Fischer

Maximum mean discrepancies (MMDs) like the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) have grown central to a wide range of applications, including hypothesis testing, sampler selection, distribution approximation, and variational inference. In each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Alessandro Barp , Carl-Johann Simon-Gabriel , Mark Girolami , Lester Mackey

Designing experiments that systematically gather data from complex physical systems is central to accelerating scientific discovery. While Bayesian experimental design (BED) provides a principled, information-based framework that integrates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Huchen Yang , Xinghao Dong , Jin-Long Wu

We study the maximum likelihood estimator of density of $n$ independent observations, under the assumption that it is well approximated by a mixture with a large number of components. The main focus is on statistical properties with respect…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-19 Arnak S. Dalalyan , Mehdi Sebbar

Reverse Kullback-Leibler (RKL) divergence has recently emerged as the preferred objective for large language model (LLM) distillation, consistently outperforming forward KL (FKL), particularly in regimes with large vocabularies and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Hoang-Chau Luong , Dat Ba Tran , Lingwei Chen

Kernel density estimation is a popular method for estimating unseen probability distributions. However, the convergence of these classical estimators to the true density slows down in high dimensions. Moreover, they do not define meaningful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-30 Jack Kendrick