Related papers: Semi-parametric Bayesian change-point model based …
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
Multi-type Markov point processes offer a flexible framework for modelling complex multi-type point patterns where it is pertinent to capture both interactions between points as well as large scale trends depending on observed covariates.…
Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…
In public health management there is a need to produce subnational estimates of health outcomes. Often, however, funds are not available to collect samples large enough to produce traditional survey sample estimates for each subnational…
This article introduces a novel Bayesian method for asynchronous change-point detection in multivariate time series. This method allows for change-points to occur earlier in some (leading) series followed, after a short delay, by…
We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…
In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…
This paper illustrates novel methods for nonstationary time series modeling along with their applications to selected problems in neuroscience. These methods are semi-parametric in that inferences are derived by combining sequential…
The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…
We develop a semi-parametric state-space model for time-series data with latent regime transitions. Classical Markov-switching models use fixed parametric transition functions, such as logistic or probit links, which restrict flexibility…
This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…
We introduce a nonparametric model for inferring time-evolving, unobserved probability distributions from discrete-time data consisting of unlabelled partitions. The latent process is a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion, and…
Gene-gene interactions are often regarded as playing significant roles in influencing variabilities of complex traits. Although much research has been devoted to this area, to date a comprehensive statistical model that addresses the…
This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the…
In this paper we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible…
Discrete biomarkers derived as cell densities or counts from tissue microarrays and immunostaining are widely used to study immune signatures in relation to survival outcomes in cancer. Although routinely collected, these signatures are not…
Semi-Markov processes are Markovian processes in which the firing time of the transitions is modelled by probabilistic distributions over positive reals interpreted as the probability of firing a transition at a certain moment in time. In…
Based on a novel dynamic Whittle likelihood approximation for locally stationary processes, a Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the time-varying spectral density is proposed. This dynamic frequency-domain based likelihood…
This paper presents a complete methodology for Bayesian inference on a semi-Markov process, from the elicitation of the prior distribution, to the computation of posterior summaries, including a guidance for its JAGS implementation. The…
We develop a Bayesian hierarchical semiparametric model for phenomena related to time series of counts. The main feature of the model is its capability to learn a latent pattern of heterogeneity in the distribution of the process innovation…