Related papers: Spatio-temporal Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detec…
We develop a spatio-temporal model to forecast sensor output at five locations in North East England. The signal is described using coupled dynamic linear models, with spatial effects specified by a Gaussian process. Data streams are…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…
This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…
Over the last decade, big data have poured into econometrics, demanding new statistical methods for analysing high-dimensional data and complex non-linear relationships. A common approach for addressing dimensionality issues relies on the…
This work addresses the problem of segmentation in time series data with respect to a statistical parameter of interest in Bayesian models. It is common to assume that the parameters are distinct within each segment. As such, many Bayesian…
We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…
We introduce and study two new inferential challenges associated with the sequential detection of change in a high-dimensional mean vector. First, we seek a confidence interval for the changepoint, and second, we estimate the set of indices…
Existing online change-point detection (CPD) methods rely on fixed-dimensional Euclidean summaries, implicitly assuming that distributional changes are well captured by moment-based or feature-based representations. They can obscure…
We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…
Consider the detection of a sparse change in high-dimensional time-series. We introduce Sparsity Likelihood-based (SL-based) score and the change-points detection procedure in multivariate normal model with general covariance structure.…
High dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models require a large number of parameters to be estimated and may suffer of inferential problems. We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) Lasso prior (BNP-Lasso) for high-dimensional VAR…
Both Bayesian and varying coefficient models are very useful tools in practice as they can be used to model parameter heterogeneity in a generalizable way. Motivated by the need of enhancing Marketing Mix Modeling at Uber, we propose a…
In this article, using kernel convolution of order based dependent Dirichlet process (Griffin and Steel (2006)) we construct a nonstationary, nonseparable, nonparametric space-time process, which, as we show, satisfies desirable properties,…
In this paper, we aim to improve multivariate anomaly detection (AD) by modeling the \textit{time-varying non-linear spatio-temporal correlations} found in multivariate time series data . In multivariate time series data, an anomaly may be…
Fitting statistical models to spatiotemporal data requires finding the right balance between imposing smoothness and following the data. In the context of p-splines, we propose a Bayesian framework for choosing the smoothing parameter which…
Large volumes of spatiotemporal data, characterized by high spatial and temporal variability, may experience structural changes over time. Unlike traditional change-point problems, each sequence in this context consists of function-valued…
We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…
Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) offer a practical alternative for addressing logistical challenges and ensuring feasibility in community health, education, and prevention studies, even though randomized controlled trials are considered the…
Learning-based model predictive control (MPC) can enhance control performance by correcting for model inaccuracies, enabling more precise state trajectory predictions than traditional MPC. A common approach is to model unknown residual…