Related papers: A stochastic SIR model on a graph with epidemiolog…
The outcome of SIR epidemics with heterogeneous infective lifetimes, or heterogeneous susceptibilities, can be mapped onto a directed percolation process on the underlying contact network. In this paper we study SIR models where…
Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…
This paper presents a discrete time probabilistic dynamic for simulating a contact-based epidemic spreading based on discrete time Markov chain process, in particular the attention is addressed to the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR)…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…
Population inhomogeneity, in the variation of the individual social contact networks and the individual infectious-recovery rates, renders the dynamics of infectious disease spreading uncertain. As a consequence the overlaying economical…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
Recently the A/H1N1-2009 virus pandemic appeared in Mexico and in other nations. We present a study of this pandemic in the Mexican case using the SIR model to describe epidemics. This model is one of the simplest models but it has been a…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
In this paper we are concerned with the SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed) epidemic on open clusters of bond percolation on the squared lattice. For the SIR model, a susceptible vertex is infected at rate proportional to the number of…
Contemporary epidemiological models often involve spatial variation, providing an avenue to investigate the averaged dynamics of individual movements. In this work, we extend a recent model by Vaziry, Kolokolnikov, and Kevrekidis [Royal…
Variable individual response to epidemics may be found within many contexts in the study of infectious diseases (e.g., age structure or contact networks). There are situations where the variability, in terms of epidemiological parameter,…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours.…