Related papers: Improving Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using …

Generating samples from a continuous probability density is a central algorithmic problem across statistics, engineering, and the sciences. For high-dimensional settings, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is the default algorithm across…

Dropout has been demonstrated as a simple and effective module to not only regularize the training process of deep neural networks, but also provide the uncertainty estimation for prediction. However, the quality of uncertainty estimation…

The coalescence of binary neutron stars are one of the main sources of gravitational waves for ground-based gravitational wave detectors. As Bayesian inference for binary neutron stars is computationally expensive, more efficient and faster…

In this article, we analyze Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) by placing it in the setting of Riemannian geometry using the Jacobi metric, so that each step corresponds to a geodesic on a suitable Riemannian manifold. We then combine the notion…

We investigate the effect of using local and non-local second derivative information on the performance of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods, for high-dimension non-Gaussian distributions, with application to Bayesian inference…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Recently, the Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) has become widespread as one of the more reliable approaches to efficient sample generation processes. However, HMC is difficult to sample in a multimodal posterior distribution because the HMC chain…

Deep neural networks (NNs) are known for their high-prediction performances. However, NNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of NNs…

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…

In recent years, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm has been found to work more efficiently compared to other popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as random walk Metropolis-Hastings) in generating samples from a…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and its dynamic extensions, such as the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), are powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional probability distributions. Riemannian manifold…

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

We study an optimal control problem under uncertainty, where the target function is the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation with random coefficients, steered by a control function. The robust formulation of the…

We propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the…

Policy gradient methods have had great success in solving continuous control tasks, yet the stochastic nature of such problems makes deterministic value estimation difficult. We propose an approach which instead estimates a distribution by…

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…

Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed. Simulation-based inference…