English
Related papers

Related papers: Improving Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using …

200 papers

The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-18 Xuchao Zhang , Fanglan Chen , Chang-Tien Lu , Naren Ramakrishnan

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is widely used for sampling from high dimensional target distributions with densities known up to proportionality. While HMC exhibits favorable scaling properties in high dimensions, it struggles with strongly…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-30 Joonha Park

Uncertainty estimation for machine learning models is of high importance in many scenarios such as constructing the confidence intervals for model predictions and detection of out-of-distribution or adversarially generated points. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Kirill Fedyanin , Evgenii Tsymbalov , Maxim Panov

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from an unnormalized probability distribution. A leapfrog integrator is commonly used to implement HMC in practice, but its performance can be…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-28 Marcel Hirt , Michalis K. Titsias , Petros Dellaportas

Bias originates from both data and algorithmic design, often exacerbated by traditional fairness methods that fail to address the subtle impacts of protected attributes. This study introduces an approach to mitigate bias in machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Khadija Zanna , Akane Sano

Probabilistic programming uses programs to express generative models whose posterior probability is then computed by built-in inference engines. A challenging goal is to develop general purpose inference algorithms that work out-of-the-box…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-03 Carol Mak , Fabian Zaiser , Luke Ong

We develop a novel deep learning method for uncertainty quantification in stochastic partial differential equations based on Bayesian neural network (BNN) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). A BNN efficiently learns the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-24 Jeahan Jung , Minseok Choi

Deploying deep learning models in safety-critical applications remains a very challenging task, mandating the provision of assurances for the dependable operation of these models. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods estimate the model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Daniel Bethell , Simos Gerasimou , Radu Calinescu

In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-27 Kimia Vahdat , Sara Shashaani

Hybrid Monte-Carlo (HMC) sampling smoother is a fully non-Gaussian four-dimensional data assimilation algorithm that works by directly sampling the posterior distribution formulated in the Bayesian framework. The smoother in its original…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2016-12-21 Ahmed Attia , Razvan Stefanescu , Adrian Sandu

Monte Carlo (MC) dropout is a simple and efficient ensembling method that can improve the accuracy and confidence calibration of high-capacity deep neural network models. However, MC dropout is not as effective as more compute-intensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Zhilu Zhang , Vianne R. Gao , Mert R. Sabuncu

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method allows sampling from continuous densities. Favorable scaling with dimension has led to wide adoption of HMC by the statistics community. Modern auto-differentiating software should allow more…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-17 Ian Langmore , Michael Dikovsky , Scott Geraedts , Peter Norgaard , Rob von Behren

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for drawing samples from smooth probability densities over continuous spaces. We study the variant most widely used in practice, Metropolized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-12 Yuansi Chen , Raaz Dwivedi , Martin J. Wainwright , Bin Yu

In this article, we describe a {\tt R} package for sampling from an empirical likelihood-based posterior using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. Empirical likelihood-based methodologies have been used in Bayesian modeling of many problems…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-09-07 Dang Trung Kien , Neo Han Wei , Sanjay Chaudhuri

Variational inference lies at the core of many state-of-the-art algorithms. To improve the approximation of the posterior beyond parametric families, it was proposed to include MCMC steps into the variational lower bound. In this work we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-28 Christopher Wolf , Maximilian Karl , Patrick van der Smagt

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Jinlin Lai , Javier Burroni , Hui Guan , Daniel Sheldon

Traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods suffer from low acceptance rate, slow mixing and low efficiency in high dimensions. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo resolves this issue by avoiding the random walk. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 Amir Hajian

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from complex high-dimensional continuous distributions. However, in many situations it is necessary or desirable to combine HMC with other…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-24 Guangyao Zhou

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach that exhibits favourable exploration properties in high-dimensional models such as neural networks. Unfortunately, HMC has limited use in large-data regimes and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-15 Adam D. Cobb , Brian Jalaian

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305--320] as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 Faming Liang
‹ Prev 1 3 4 5 6 7 10 Next ›