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Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

In this work, we combine the idea of data-driven polynomial chaos expansions with the weighted least-square approach to solve uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems. The idea of data-driven polynomial chaos is to use statistical moments…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Ling Guo , Yongle Liu , Tao Zhou

This paper develops a data-driven learning framework for approximating the feasible region and invariant set of a nonlinear system under the nonlinear Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme. The developed approach is based on the feasibility…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-16 Yuanqiang Zhou , Dewei Li , Yugeng Xi , Yunwen Xu

A technique for reducing the number of integrals in a Monte Carlo calculation is introduced. For integrations relying on classical or mean-field trajectories with local weighting functions, it is possible to integrate analytically at least…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-05-17 Jarod Tall , Steven Tomsovic

We present a novel data-driven model predictive control (MPC) approach to control unknown nonlinear systems using only measured input-output data with closed-loop stability guarantees. Our scheme relies on the data-driven system…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Julian Berberich , Johannes Köhler , Matthias A. Müller , Frank Allgöwer

We present a data-driven nonintrusive model order reduction method for dynamical systems with moving boundaries. The proposed method draws on the proper orthogonal decomposition, Gaussian process regression, and moving least squares…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-03-18 Zhan Ma , Wenxiao Pan

We present a novel distribution-free approach, the data-driven threshold machine (DTM), for a fundamental problem at the core of many learning tasks: choose a threshold for a given pre-specified level that bounds the tail probability of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-17 Shuang Li , Yao Xie , Le Song

This paper presents a Distributed Stochastic Model Predictive Control algorithm for networks of linear systems with multiplicative uncertainties and local chance constraints on the states and control inputs. The chance constraints are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Christoph Mark , Steven Liu

Recently, direct data-driven prediction has found important applications for controlling unknown systems, particularly in predictive control. Such an approach provides exact prediction using behavioral system theory when noise-free data are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-20 Mingzhou Yin , Andrea Iannelli , Roy S. Smith

The montecarlo method, which is quite commonly used to solve maximum entropy problems in statistical physics, can actually be used to solve inverse problems in a much wider context. The probability distribution which maximizes entropy can…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Jan Naudts

Control of complex turbulent dynamical systems involving strong nonlinearity and high degrees of internal instability is an important topic in practice. Different from traditional methods for controlling individual trajectories, controlling…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-07-31 Jeffrey Covington , Di Qi , Nan Chen

We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

We study a variance reduction strategy based on control variables for simulating the averaged macroscopic behavior of a stochastic slow-fast system. We assume that this averaged behavior can be written in terms of a few slow degrees of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-16 Ward Melis , Giovanni Samaey

This paper presents a tractable framework for data-driven synthesis of robustly safe control laws. Given noisy experimental data and some priors about the structure of the system, the goal is to synthesize a state feedback law such that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-17 Jian Zheng , Tianyu Dai , Jared Miller , Mario Sznaier

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 A. Gokcen Mahmutoglu , Alper T. Erdogan , Alper Demir

Over the recent past data-driven algorithms for solving stochastic optimal control problems in face of model uncertainty have become an increasingly active area of research. However, for singular controls and underlying diffusion dynamics…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-15 Sören Christensen , Asbjørn Holk Thomsen , Lukas Trottner

We propose a novel stochastic gradient descent method for solving linear least squares problems with partially observed data. Our method uses submatrices indexed by a randomly selected pair of row and column index sets to update the iterate…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-10 Kui Du , Xiao-Hui Sun

In this paper, we establish an iterative data-driven approach to derive guaranteed bounds on nonlinearity measures of unknown nonlinear systems. In this context, nonlinearity measures quantify the strength of the nonlinearity of a dynamical…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-13 Tim Martin , Frank Allgöwer

Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ludovico T. Giorgini