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Propensity score methods are widely used for estimating treatment effects from observational studies. A popular approach is to estimate propensity scores by maximum likelihood based on logistic regression, and then apply inverse probability…
Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two…
Dropout regularization of deep neural networks has been a mysterious yet effective tool to prevent overfitting. Explanations for its success range from the prevention of "co-adapted" weights to it being a form of cheap Bayesian inference.…
We present a class of algorithms capable of directly training deep neural networks with respect to large families of task-specific performance measures such as the F-measure and the Kullback-Leibler divergence that are structured and…
To infer the parameters of mechanistic models with intractable likelihoods, techniques such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly being adopted. One of the main disadvantages of ABC in practical situations, however, is…
Robustness to outliers is a central issue in real-world machine learning applications. While replacing a model to a heavy-tailed one (e.g., from Gaussian to Student-t) is a standard approach for robustification, it can only be applied to…
Modern deep models are often pretrained on large-scale data with missing labels using composite objectives, where the relative weights of multiple loss terms act as hyperparameters. Tuning these weights with random search or Bayesian…
The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…
With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…
The goal of Bayesian deep learning is to provide uncertainty quantification via the posterior distribution. However, exact inference over the weight space is computationally intractable due to the ultra-high dimensions of the neural…
Large multilayer neural networks trained with backpropagation have recently achieved state-of-the-art results in a wide range of problems. However, using backprop for neural net learning still has some disadvantages, e.g., having to tune a…
Neural networks trained with standard objectives exhibit behaviors characteristic of probabilistic inference: soft clustering, prototype specialization, and Bayesian uncertainty tracking. These phenomena appear across architectures -- in…
Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…
Missing time-series data is a prevalent problem in many prescriptive analytics models in operations management, healthcare and finance. Imputation methods for time-series data are usually applied to the full panel data with the purpose of…
We consider the problem of estimating the transition dynamics $T^*$ from near-optimal expert trajectories in the context of offline model-based reinforcement learning. We develop a novel constraint-based method, Inverse Transition Learning,…
This paper studies the Variational Inference (VI) used for training Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) in the overparameterized regime, i.e., when the number of neurons tends to infinity. More specifically, we consider overparameterized…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a probabilistic interpretation for deep learning models by imposing a prior distribution over model parameters and inferring a posterior distribution based on observed data. The model sampled from the…
Due to lack of data, overfitting ubiquitously exists in real-world applications of deep neural networks (DNNs). We propose advanced dropout, a model-free methodology, to mitigate overfitting and improve the performance of DNNs. The advanced…
In this paper we revisit the weighted likelihood bootstrap, a method that generates samples from an approximate Bayesian posterior of a parametric model. We show that the same method can be derived, without approximation, under a Bayesian…
Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…