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We propose a weak-identification-robust test for linear instrumental variable (IV) regressions with high-dimensional instruments, whose number is allowed to exceed the sample size. In addition, our test is robust to general error…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-01 Qu Feng , Sombut Jaidee , Wenjie Wang

Instrumental variables (eliminate the bias that afflicts least-squares identification of dynamical systems through noisy data, yet traditionally relies on external instruments that are seldom available for nonlinear time series data. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

A large degree of overidentification causes severe bias in TSLS. A conventional heuristic rule used to motivate new estimators in this context is approximate bias. This paper formalizes the definition of approximate bias and expands the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-22 Lei Bill Wang

We consider the problem of estimating the slope parameter in functional linear instrumental regression, where in the presence of an instrument W, i.e., an exogenous random function, a scalar response Y is modeled in dependence of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-16 Jan Johannes

The Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) methodology exploits panels with factor error structures to construct instruments to estimate structural time series models with endogeneity even after controlling for latent factors. We extend the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-26 Saman Banafti , Tae-Hwy Lee

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Ziang Niu , Yuwen Gu , Wei Li

We consider the problem of estimating the structural function in nonparametric instrumental regression, where in the presence of an instrument W a response Y is modeled in dependence of an endogenous explanatory variable Z. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jan Johannes , Maik Schwarz

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are central to causal inference from observational data, particularly when a randomized experiment is not feasible. However, of the three conventional core IV identification conditions, only one, IV…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Zhonghua Liu , Baoluo Sun , Ting Ye , David Richardson , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Optimal mean shift vector (OMSV)-based importance sampling methods have long been prevalent in yield estimation and optimization as an industry standard. However, most OMSV-based methods are designed heuristically without a rigorous…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Yanfang Liu , Lei He , Wei W. Xing

The two-stage least-squares (2SLS) estimator is known to be biased when its first-stage fit is poor. I show that better first-stage prediction can alleviate this bias. In a two-stage linear regression model with Normal noise, I consider…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-01 Jann Spiess

Recent advances in the literature have demonstrated that standard supervised learning algorithms are ill-suited for problems with endogenous explanatory variables. To correct for the endogeneity bias, many variants of nonparameteric…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-18 Edvard Bakhitov , Amandeep Singh

This paper develops a Mean Group Instrumental Variables (MGIV) estimator for spatial dynamic panel data models with interactive effects, under large N and T asymptotics. Unlike existing approaches that typically impose slope-parameter…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-31 Jia Chen , Guowei Cui , Vasilis Sarafidis , Takashi Yamagata

The problem of endogeneity in statistics and econometrics is often handled by introducing instrumental variables (IV) which fulfill the mean independence assumption, i.e. the unobservable is mean independent of the instruments. When full…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-13 Fabian Dunker

We consider the estimation of a structural function which models a non-parametric relationship between a response and an endogenous regressor given an instrument in presence of dependence in the data generating process. Assuming an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-08 Nicolas Asin , Jan Johannes

In this note, we propose to use sparse methods (e.g. LASSO, Post-LASSO, sqrt-LASSO, and Post-sqrt-LASSO) to form first-stage predictions and estimate optimal instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) models with many instruments in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

Uncertainty in the estimation of the causal effect in observational studies is often due to unmeasured confounding, i.e., the presence of unobserved covariates linking treatments and outcomes. Instrumental Variables (IV) are commonly used…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-30 M. Usaid Awan , Yameng Liu , Marco Morucci , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Jackknife instrumental variable estimation (JIVE) is a classic method to leverage many weak instrumental variables (IVs) to estimate linear structural models, overcoming the bias of standard methods like two-stage least squares. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-08 Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus , Apoorva Lal

We consider the problem of estimating the value l({\phi}) of a linear functional, where the structural function {\phi} models a nonparametric relationship in presence of instrumental variables. We propose a plug-in estimator which is based…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-06 Christoph Breunig , Jan Johannes

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a widely used way to estimate the causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data with latent confounders. A standard IV is expected to be related to the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

Finding valid instruments is difficult. We propose Validity Set Instrumental Variable (VSIV) estimation, a method for estimating local average treatment effects (LATEs) in heterogeneous causal effect models when the instruments are…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-11 Zhenting Sun , Kaspar Wüthrich