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We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…
In this paper, we study a Markov chain-based stochastic gradient algorithm in general Hilbert spaces, aiming at approximating the optimal solution of a quadratic loss function. We establish probabilistic upper bounds on its convergence. We…
We consider the problem of bounding mean first passage times for a class of continuous-time Markov chains that captures stochastic interactions between groups of identical agents. The quantitative analysis of such probabilistic population…
Arguing about the equilibrium distribution of continuous-time Markov chains can be vital for showing properties about the underlying systems. For example in biological systems, bistability of a chemical reaction network can hint at its…
We study the convergence of stochastic fixed point iterations in the consistent case (in the sense of Butnariu and Fl{\aa}m (1995)) in several different settings, under decreasingly restrictive regularity assumptions of the fixed point…
We study model embeddability, which is a variation of the famous embedding problem in probability theory, when apart from the requirement that the Markov matrix is the matrix exponential of a rate matrix, we additionally ask that the rate…
This paper considers a Markov-modulated duplication-deletion random graph where at each time instant, one node can either join or leave the network; the probabilities of joining or leaving evolve according to the realization of a finite…
A wide class of ``counting'' problems have been studied in Computer Science. Three typical examples are the estimation of - (i) the permanent of an $n\times n$ 0-1 matrix, (ii) the partition function of certain $n-$ particle Statistical…
A novel Markovian network evolution model is introduced and analysed by means of information theory. It will be proved that the model, called Network Evolution Chain, is a stationary and ergodic stochastic process. Therefore, the Asymptotic…
Bayesian network models with latent variables are widely used in statistics and machine learning. In this paper we provide a complete algebraic characterization of Bayesian network models with latent variables when the observed variables…
The literature on Bayesian methods for the analysis of discrete-time semi-Markov processes is sparse. In this paper, we introduce the semi-Markov beta-Stacy process, a stochastic process useful for the Bayesian non-parametric analysis of…
In the context of multilevel longitudinal data, where sample units are collected in clusters, an important aspect that should be accounted for is the unobserved heterogeneity between sample units and between clusters. For this aim we…
We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…
Markov chains are a common framework for individual-based state and time discrete models in ecology and evolution. Their use, however, is largely limited to systems with a low number of states, since the transition matrices involved pose…
For a spatial characteristic, there exist commonly fat-tail frequency distributions of fragment-size and -mass of glass, areas enclosed by city roads, and pore size/volume in random packings. In order to give a new analytical approach for…
In this work we introduce a new and richer class of finite order Markov chain models and address the following model selection problem: find the Markov model with the minimal set of parameters (minimal Markov model) which is necessary to…
We present a probabilistic model for stochastic iterative algorithms with the use case of optimization algorithms in mind. Based on this model, we present PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for functions that are defined on the trajectory…
We studied how to obtain a distribution for the number of ancestors in species of sexual reproduction. Present models concentrate on the estimation of distributions repetitions of ancestors in genealogical trees. It has been shown that is…
This paper generalizes the notion of stochastic order to a relation between probability measures over arbitrary measurable spaces. This generalization is motivated by the observation that for the stochastic ordering of two stationary Markov…
We provide explicit expressions for the constants involved in the characterisation of ergodicity of sub-geometric Markov chains. The constants are determined in terms of those appearing in the assumed drift and one-step minorisation…