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The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…
We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with an "improved" Markov chain Monte Carlo (IMCMC) method to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters in subgrid-scale (SGS) closures for large eddy simulations (LES) of…
We propose a posterior for Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) based on generalized Bayesian inference. To define the posterior, we use Scoring Rules (SRs), which evaluate probabilistic models given an observation. In LFI, we can…
Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale inference, yet most classical approaches assume homoscedastic observations and focus primarily on posterior mean estimation. We develop a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework for…
We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…
A popular approach to nonparametric option pricing is the Minimum Cross Entropy (MCE) method based on minimization of the relative Kullback-Leibler entropy of the price density distribution and a given reference density, with observable…
The tail of a bivariate distribution function in the domain of attraction of a bivariate extreme-value distribution may be approximated by the one of its extreme-value attractor. The extreme-value attractor has margins that belong to a…
In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…
Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…
In this work, we study the problem of learning the volatility under market microstructure noise. Specifically, we consider noisy discrete time observations from a stochastic differential equation and develop a novel computational method to…
In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to as…
We study a Monte Carlo algorithm for simulation of probability distributions based on stochastic step functions, and compare to the traditional Metropolis/Hastings method. Unlike the latter, the step function algorithm can produce an…
Subordinate diffusions are constructed by time changing diffusion processes with an independent L\'{e}vy subordinator. This is a rich family of Markovian jump processes which exhibit a variety of jump behavior and have found many…
Here we develop a method for performing nonparametric Bayesian inference on quantiles. Relying on geometric measure theory and employing a Hausdorff base measure, we are able to specify meaningful priors for the quantile while treating the…
Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…
This paper studies simultaneous inference of conditional distributions in nonlinear time series from a sieve M-regression perspective. Existing literature on sieve M-regression has primarily focused on pointwise asymptotics, leaving the…
Nonresponse weighting adjustment using the response propensity score is a popular tool for handling unit nonresponse. Statistical inference after the nonresponse weighting adjustment is complicated because the effect of estimating the…
We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…
Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…
Statistical inference for stochastic processes based on high-frequency observations has been an active research area for more than a decade. One of the most well-known and widely studied problems is that of estimation of the quadratic…