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Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…
Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…
We present a Bayesian nonparametric system reliability model which scales well and provides a great deal of flexibility in modeling. The Bayesian approach naturally handles the disparate amounts of component and subsystem data that may…
This paper presents a nonparametric method for estimating the conditional density associated to the jump rate of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. In our framework, the estimation needs only one observation of the process within a…
This paper presents an improved implicit sampling method for hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems. A widely used approach for sampling posterior distribution is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, the samples generated by…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…
A compound Poisson process whose jump measure and intensity are unknown is observed at finitely many equispaced times. We construct a purely data-driven estimator of the L\'evy density $\nu$ through the spectral approach using general…
We characterize the small-time asymptotic behavior of the exit probability of a L\'evy process out of a two-sided interval and of the law of its overshoot, conditionally on the terminal value of the process. The asymptotic expansions are…
We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…
We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…
Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…
The L\'evy walk is a non-Brownian random walk model that has been found to describe anomalous dynamic phenomena in diverse fields ranging from biology over quantum physics to ecology. Recurrently occurring problems are to examine whether…
In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…
Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…
This paper develops bootstrap methods to construct uniform confidence bands for nonparametric spectral estimation of L\'{e}vy densities under high-frequency observations. We assume that we observe $n$ discrete observations at frequency…
Bayesian inference often faces a trade-off between computational speed and sampling accuracy. We propose an adaptive workflow that integrates rapid amortized inference with gold-standard MCMC techniques to achieve a favorable combination of…
We consider a stochastic process driven by a diffusion and jumps. We devise a technique, which is based on a discrete record of observations, for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. The…
Given a low frequency sample of an infinitely divisible moving average random field $\{\int_{\mathbb{R}^d} f(x-t)\Lambda(dx); \ t \in \mathbb{R}^d \}$ with a known simple function $f$, we study the problem of nonparametric estimation of the…
In this paper we show that a non-local operator of certain type extends to the generator of a strong Markov process, admitting the transition probability density. For this transition probability density we construct the intrinsic upper and…
We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators based on observations which are required to be neither independent nor identically distributed. We give general results on the rate of convergence of the…