Related papers: Implicit Copulas from Bayesian Regularized Regress…

It has become commonplace to use complex computer models to predict outcomes in regions where data does not exist. Typically these models need to be calibrated and validated using some experimental data, which often consists of multiple…

We propose a new Bayesian strategy for adaptation to smoothness in nonparametric models based on heavy tailed series priors. We illustrate it in a variety of settings, showing in particular that the corresponding Bayesian posterior…

In this manuscript, we study the problem of scalar-on-distribution regression; that is, instances where subject-specific distributions or densities, or in practice, repeated measures from those distributions, are the covariates related to a…

In this paper, we introduce the notion of Gaussian processes indexed by probability density functions for extending the Mat\'ern family of covariance functions. We use some tools from information geometry to improve the efficiency and the…

We propose a method for post-processing an ensemble of multivariate forecasts in order to obtain a joint predictive distribution of weather. Our method utilizes existing univariate post-processing techniques, in this case ensemble Bayesian…

We propose reinterpreting copula density estimation as a discriminative task. Under this novel estimation scheme, we train a classifier to distinguish samples from the joint density from those of the product of independent marginals,…

In this work we propose a semiparametric bivariate copula whose density is defined by a piecewise constant function on disjoint squares. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of model parameters and prove that they reduce to the…

We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the…

Implicit samplers are algorithms for producing independent, weighted samples from multi-variate probability distributions. These are often applied in Bayesian data assimilation algorithms. We use Laplace asymptotic expansions to analyze two…

This paper proposes a class of asymmetric priors to perform Bayesian wavelet shrinkage in the standard nonparametric regression model with Gaussian error. The priors are composed by mixtures of a point mass function at zero and one of the…

A key challenge in the practical application of Gaussian processes (GPs) is selecting a proper covariance function. The moving average, or process convolutions, construction of GPs allows some additional flexibility, but still requires…

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

This paper lays out a principled approach to compare copula forecasts via strictly consistent scores. We first establish the negative result that, in general, copulas fail to be elicitable, implying that copula predictions cannot sensibly…

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

Gaussian multiplicative noise is commonly used as a stochastic regularisation technique in training of deterministic neural networks. A recent paper reinterpreted the technique as a specific algorithm for approximate inference in Bayesian…

There has been much recent interest in modifying Bayesian inference for misspecified models so that it is useful for specific purposes. One popular modified Bayesian inference method is "cutting feedback" which can be used when the model…

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…

When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block…

Latent autoregressive processes are a popular choice to model time varying parameters. These models can be formulated as nonlinear state space models for which inference is not straightforward due to the high number of parameters. Therefore…