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Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to…
We propose a modified version of the three-step estimation method for the latent class model with covariates, which may be used to estimate latent Markov models for longitudinal data. The three-step estimation approach we propose is based…
The ability to construct a realistic simulator of financial exchanges, including reproducing the dynamics of the limit order book, can give insight into many counterfactual scenarios, such as a flash crash, a margin call, or changes in…
The role of cryptocurrencies within the financial systems has been expanding rapidly in recent years among investors and institutions. It is therefore crucial to investigate the phenomena and develop statistical methods able to capture…
Modeling continuous-time physiological processes that manifest a patient's evolving clinical states is a key step in approaching many problems in healthcare. In this paper, we develop the Hidden Absorbing Semi-Markov Model (HASMM): a…
Data augmentation improves the convergence of iterative algorithms, such as the EM algorithm and Gibbs sampler by introducing carefully designed latent variables. In this article, we first propose a data augmentation scheme for the…
When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many…
In this paper we describe three stochastic models based on a semi-Markov chains approach and its generalizations to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. The three models are: a simple semi-Markov chain model, an indexed…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely applied in studies where a discrete-valued process of interest is observed indirectly. They have for example been used to model behaviour from human and animal tracking data, disease status from…
The Stochastic Approximation EM (SAEM) algorithm, a variant stochastic approximation of EM, is a versatile tool for inference in incomplete data models. In this paper, we review the fundamental EM algorithm and then focus especially on the…
While advances continue to be made in model-based clustering, challenges persist in modeling various data types such as panel data. Multivariate panel data present difficulties for clustering algorithms because they are often plagued by…
We define an evolving in-time Bayesian neural network called a Hidden Markov Neural Network, which addresses the crucial challenge in time-series forecasting and continual learning: striking a balance between adapting to new data and…
It is known that the estimating equations for quantile regression (QR) can be solved using an EM algorithm in which the M-step is computed via weighted least squares, with weights computed at the E-step as the expectation of independent…
In this article, normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) autoregressive model is introduced. The parameters of the model are estimated using Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The efficacy of the EM algorithm is shown using simulated and real…
In this paper, we study properties of penalized and structured M-estimators of multivariate scatter, based on geodesically convex but not necessarily smooth penalty functions. Existence and uniqueness conditions for these penalized and…
Forecasting tasks using large datasets gathering thousands of heterogeneous time series is a crucial statistical problem in numerous sectors. The main challenge is to model a rich variety of time series, leverage any available external…
The Student-$t$ distribution is widely used in statistical modeling of datasets involving outliers since its longer-than-normal tails provide a robust approach to hand such data. Furthermore, data collected over time may contain censored or…
In this paper, we study closed-loop equilibrium strategies for mean-variance portfolio selection problem in a hidden Markov model with dynamic attention behavior. In addition to the investment strategy, the investor's attention to news is…
One of the central interests of animal movement ecology is relating movement characteristics to behavioural characteristics. The traditional discrete-time statistical tool for inferring unobserved behaviours from movement data is the hidden…
Reduced-rank regressions are powerful tools used to identify co-movements within economic time series. However, this task becomes challenging when we observe matrix-valued time series, where each dimension may have a different co-movement…