Related papers: A Regularized Vector Autoregressive Hidden Semi-Ma…
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…
In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…
Using supervised machine learning approaches to recognize human activities from on-body wearable accelerometers generally requires a large amount of labelled data. When ground truth information is not available, too expensive, time…
Financial markets exhibit alternating periods of rising and falling prices. Stock traders seeking to make profitable investment decisions have to account for those trends, where the goal is to accurately predict switches from bullish…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…
[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM)…
We propose a novel cointegrated autoregressive model for matrix-valued time series, with bi-linear cointegrating vectors corresponding to the rows and columns of the matrix data. Compared to the traditional cointegration analysis, our…
Regime detection is vital for the effective operation of trading and investment strategies. However, the most popular means of doing this, the two-state Markov-switching regression model (MSR), is not an optimal solution, as two volatility…
We introduce a new procedure to neuralize unsupervised Hidden Markov Models in the continuous case. This provides higher flexibility to solve problems with underlying latent variables. This approach is evaluated on both synthetic and real…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…
We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…
Modern evolvements of the technologies have been leading to a profound influence on the financial market. The introduction of constituents like Exchange-Traded Funds, and the wide-use of advanced technologies such as algorithmic trading,…
In this paper we solve the discrete time mean-variance hedging problem when asset returns follow a multivariate autoregressive hidden Markov model. Time dependent volatility and serial dependence are well established properties of financial…
This work proposes a multi-agent filtering algorithm over graphs for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs), which can be used for sequential state estimation or for tracking opinion formation over dynamic social networks. We show that…
Matrix-variate time series data are increasingly popular in economics, statistics, and environmental studies, among other fields. This paper develops regularized estimation methods for analyzing high-dimensional matrix-variate time series…
Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer…
We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…
Finite mixture models have been widely used to model and analyze data from a heterogeneous populations. Moreover, data of this kind can be missing or subject to some upper and/or lower detection limits because of the restriction of…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…
We consider the task of learning mappings from sequential data to real-valued responses. We present and evaluate an approach to learning a type of hidden Markov model (HMM) for regression. The learning process involves inferring the…