Related papers: Central Limit Model Checking
Applications of stochastic models often involve the evaluation of steady-state performance, which requires solving a set of balance equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or even uncountable. As a result,…
This paper considers linear discrete-time systems with additive disturbances, and designs a Model Predictive Control (MPC) law to minimise a quadratic cost function subject to a chance constraint. The chance constraint is defined as a…
The linear noise approximation (LNA) describes the random fluctuations from the mean-field concentrations of a chemical reaction network due to intrinsic noise. It is also used as a test probe to determine the accuracy of reduced…
We study a mutliscale jump process introduced in a work by Crudu, Debussche, Muller and Radulescu. Using an adequate coupling, we are able to prove the strong convergence, for the uniform topology, to a piecewise deterministic Markov…
This paper concentrates on the minimal hitting probability of continuous-time controlled Markov systems (CTCMSs) with countable state and finite admissible action spaces. The existence of an optimal policy is first proved. In particular,…
This paper presents a distributed stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) approach for large-scale linear systems with private and common uncertainties in a plug-and-play framework. Using the so-called scenario approach, the centralized…
We develop a systematic approach to the linear-noise approximation for stochastic reaction systems with distributed delays. Unlike most existing work our formalism does not rely on a master equation, instead it is based upon a dynamical…
We employ uncertain parametric CTMCs with parametric transition rates and a prior on the parameter values. The prior encodes uncertainty about the actual transition rates, while the parameters allow dependencies between transition rates.…
State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…
We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
In this paper we develop the elements of the theory of algorithmic randomness in continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). Our main contribution is a rigorous, useful notion of what it means for an individual trajectory of a CTMC to be random.…
This article considers stochastic algorithms for efficiently solving a class of large scale non-linear least squares (NLS) problems which frequently arise in applications. We propose eight variants of a practical randomized algorithm where…
We are interested in understanding stability (almost sure boundedness) of stochastic approximation algorithms (SAs) driven by a `controlled Markov' process. Analyzing this class of algorithms is important, since many reinforcement learning…
This work introduces a novel framework for precisely and efficiently estimating rare event probabilities in complex, high-dimensional non-Gaussian spaces, building on our foundational Approximate Sampling Target with Post-processing…
Ordinary differential equations obtained as limits of Markov processes appear in many settings. They may arise by scaling large systems, or by averaging rapidly fluctuating systems, or in systems involving multiple time-scales, by a…
Continuous Time Markov Chain (CMTC) is widely used to describe and analyze systems in several knowledge areas. Steady state availability is one important analysis that can be made through Markov chain formalism that allows researchers…
In this paper we propose two behavioral distances that support approximate reasoning on Stochastic Markov Models (SMMs), that are continuous-time stochastic transition systems where the residence time on each state is described by a generic…
We present a practically appealing extension of the probabilistic model checker PRISM rendering it to handle fixed-delay continuous-time Markov chains (fdCTMCs) with rewards, the equivalent formalism to the deterministic and stochastic…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
In this paper, we establish non-asymptotic bounds for accuracy of normal approximation for linear two-timescale stochastic approximation (TTSA) algorithms driven by martingale difference or Markov noise. Focusing on both the last iterate…