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State-space models are a popular statistical framework for analysing sequential data. Within this framework, particle filters are often used to perform inference on non-linear state-space models. We introduce a new method, StateMixNN, that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Benjamin Cox , Santiago Segarra , Victor Elvira

We introduce a simple method to estimate the system parameters in continuous dynamical systems from the time series. In this method, we construct a modified system by introducing some constants (controlling constants) into the given…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 P. Palaniyandi , M. Lakshmanan

We study identification of stochastic Wiener dynamic systems using so-called indirect inference. The main idea is to first fit an auxiliary model to the observed data and then in a second step, often by simulation, fit a more structured…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-21 Bo Wahlberg , James Welsh , Lennart Ljung

In this paper we study the problem of inferring the initial conditions of a dynamical system under incomplete information. Studying several model systems, we infer the latent microstates that best reproduce an observed time series when the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-04-04 Blas Kolic , Juan Sabuco , J. Doyne Farmer

Nonlinear systems play a significant role in numerous scientific and engineering disciplines, and comprehending their behavior is crucial for the development of effective control and prediction strategies. This paper introduces a novel…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-15 Kaushal Kumar

This paper presents an algorithm to apply nonlinear control design approaches in the case of stochastic systems with partial state observation. Deterministic nonlinear control approaches are formulated under the assumption of full state…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-19 Mohammad S. Ramadan , Mohammad Alsuwaidan , Ahmed Atallah , Sylvia Herbert

Obtaining initial conditions and parameterizations leading to a model consistent with available measurements or safety specifications is important for many applications. Examples include model (in-)validation, prediction, fault diagnosis,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-03-20 Stefan Streif , Philipp Rumschinski , Didier Henrion , Rolf Findeisen

Subspace identification methods (SIMs) have proven to be very useful and numerically robust for building state-space models. While most SIMs are consistent, few if any can achieve the efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE).…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Jiabao He , S. Joe Qin , Håkan Hjalmarsson

Dynamical modelling lies at the heart of our understanding of physical systems. Its role in science is deeper than mere operational forecasting, in that it allows us to evaluate the adequacy of the mathematical structure of our models.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-05 Hailiang Du , Leonard A. Smith

Dynamic inference problems in autoregressive (AR/ARMA/ARIMA), exponential smoothing, and navigation are often formulated and solved using state-space models (SSM), which allow a range of statistical distributions to inform innovations and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-31 Jonathan Jonker , Peng Zheng , Aleksandr Y. Aravkin

We propose a probabilistic extension of Wiener-Laguerre models for causal operator learning. Classical Wiener-Laguerre models parameterize stable linear dynamics using orthonormal Laguerre bases and apply a static nonlinear map to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Rahul Manavalan , Filip Tronarp

In this paper we propose a new method to detect and classify coexisting solutions in nonlinear systems. We focus on mechanical and structural systems where we usually avoid multistability for safety and reliability. We want to be sure that…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-02-12 P. Brzeski , M. Lazarek , T. Kapitaniak , J. Kurths , P. Perlikowski

We present a nonlinear dynamical approximation method for time-dependent Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). The approach makes use of parametrized decoder functions, and provides a general, and principled way of understanding and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-05-20 Daan Bon , Benjamin Caris , Olga Mula

In the framework of solid mechanics, the task of deriving material parameters from experimental data has recently re-emerged with the progress in full-field measurement capabilities and the renewed advances of machine learning. In this…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Ulrich Römer , Stefan Hartmann , Jendrik-Alexander Tröger , David Anton , Henning Wessels , Moritz Flaschel , Laura De Lorenzis

We present a general system identification procedure capable of estimating of a broad spectrum of state-space dynamical models, including linear time-invariant (LTI), linear parameter-varying} (LPV), and nonlinear (NL) dynamics, along with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-17 Alberto Bemporad , Roland Tóth

State-space smoothing has found many applications in science and engineering. Under linear and Gaussian assumptions, smoothed estimates can be obtained using efficient recursions, for example Rauch-Tung-Striebel and Mayne-Fraser algorithms.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-27 A. Y. Aravkin , J. V. Burke , L. Ljung , A. Lozano , G. Pillonetto

State space models contain time-indexed parameters, termed states, as well as static parameters, simply termed parameters. The problem of inferring both static parameters as well as states simultaneously, based on time-indexed observations,…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-28 Anthony Ebert , Pierre Pudlo , Kerrie Mengersen , Paul Wu , Christopher Drovandi

This work presents a scalable control framework based on nonlinear Model Predictive Control for high-dimensional dynamical systems. The proposed approach addresses the key challenges of model scalability and partial observability by…

Infinite hidden Markov models provide a flexible framework for modelling time series with structural changes and complex dynamics, without requiring the number of latent states to be specified in advance. This flexibility is achieved…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Federico P. Cortese , Luca Rossini

Non linear regression models are a standard tool for modeling real phenomena, with several applications in machine learning, ecology, econometry... Estimating the parameters of the model has garnered a lot of attention during many years. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-17 Peggy Cénac , Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Bruno Portier