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This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…

OpenML is an online machine learning platform where researchers can easily share data, machine learning tasks and experiments as well as organize them online to work and collaborate more efficiently. In this paper, we present an R package…

We make two contributions to the problem of estimating the $L_1$ calibration error of a binary classifier from a finite dataset. First, we provide an upper bound for any classifier where the calibration function has bounded variation.…

Surveys are an important research tool, providing unique measurements on subjective experiences such as sentiment and opinions that cannot be measured by other means. However, because survey data is collected from a self-selected group of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-14 Tal Sarig , Tal Galili , Roee Eilat

It is shown how to set up, conduct, and analyze large simulation studies with the new R package simsalapar = simulations simplified and launched parallel. A simulation study typically starts with determining a collection of input variables…

Computation · Statistics 2013-09-18 Marius Hofert , Martin Mächler

The common practice for displaying error bars on distributions of numbers of events is confusing and can lead to incorrect conclusions. A proposal is made for a different style of presentation that more directly indicates the level of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-01-31 Ritu Aggarwal , Allen Caldwell

Ensemble forecasts are commonly used to support decision-making and policy planning across various fields because they often offer improved accuracy and stability compared to individual models. As each model has its own unique…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-29 Minsu Kim , Li Shandross , Evan L. Ray , Nicholas G. Reich

We consider a setting where an agent's uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures, rather than a single measure. Measure-by-measure updating of such a set of measures upon acquiring new information is well-known to suffer…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-04 Joseph Y. Halpern , Samantha Leung

Error enhancement properties of data processing algorithms in elementary particle physics measurements are discussed. It is argued that a systematic use of continuous weights instead of hard cuts may reduce errors of the results at the cost…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2008-02-03 Fyodor V. Tkachov

Cooperative geolocation has attracted significant research interests in recent years. A large number of localization algorithms rely on the availability of statistical knowledge of measurement errors, which is often difficult to obtain in…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-05 Xiufang Shi , Guoqiang Mao , Brian. D. O. Anderson , Zaiyue Yang , Jiming Chen

Change of measure inequalities translate divergences between probability measures into explicit bounds on event probabilities, and play an important role in deriving probabilistic guarantees in learning theory, information theory, and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Yanxiao Liu , Yijun Fan , Deniz Gündüz

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

The Dirichlet process mixture model and more general mixtures based on discrete random probability measures have been shown to be flexible and accurate models for density estimation and clustering. The goal of this paper is to illustrate…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-02 Ernesto Barrios , Antonio Lijoi , Luis E. Nieto-Barajas , Igor Prünster

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

The validation of data from sensors has become an important issue in the operation and control of modern industrial plants. One approach is to use knowledge based techniques to detect inconsistencies in measured data. This article presents…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Pablo H. Ibarguengoytia , Luis Enrique Sucar , Sunil Vadera

BACKGROUND: Random-effects meta-analysis within a hierarchical normal modeling framework is commonly implemented in a wide range of evidence synthesis applications. More general problems may even be tackled when considering meta-regression…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-27 Christian Röver , Tim Friede

Computer programs do not always work as expected. In fact, ominous warnings about the desperate state of the software industry continue to be released with almost ritualistic regularity. In this paper, we look at the 60 years history of…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2017-04-03 Tomas Petricek

The random-effects or normal-normal hierarchical model is commonly utilized in a wide range of meta-analysis applications. A Bayesian approach to inference is very attractive in this context, especially when a meta-analysis is based only on…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-29 Christian Röver

Measurement uncertainty relations are quantitative bounds on the errors in an approximate joint measurement of two observables. They can be seen as a generalization of the error/disturbance tradeoff first discussed heuristically by…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-05-01 Paul Busch , Pekka Lahti , Reinhard F Werner

We consider a setting where an agent's uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures, rather than a single measure. Measure-bymeasure updating of such a set of measures upon acquiring new information is well-known to suffer…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-02-26 Joseph Y. Halpern , Samantha Leung
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