Related papers: Public opinion by a poll process: model study and …
In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…
In this paper, the influence of the social media on the opinion formation process is modeled during an election campaign. In the proposed model, peer- to-peer interactions and targeted online propaganda messages are assumed to be the…
We generalize a binary majority-vote model on adaptive networks to a plurality-vote counterpart. When opinions are uniformly distributed in the population of voters in the initial state, it is found that having more available opinions in…
"What other people think" has always been an important piece of information during various decision-making processes. Today people frequently make their opinions available via the Internet, and as a result, the Web has become an excellent…
Referring to a standard context of voting theory, and to the classic notion of voting situation, here we show that it is possible to observe any arbitrary set of elections' outcomes, no matter how paradoxical it may appear. On this purpose…
This paper proposes a dual opinions co-evolution model based on the dual attitudes theory in social psychology, where every individual has dual opinions of an object: implicit and explicit opinions. The implicit opinions are individuals'…
In this paper, we propose a pubic opinion model with incorporation of asymmetric cognitive bias: confirmation bias and negativity bias. We then investigate the generic modeling guidance of capturing asymmetric confirmation bias and…
We study the contrarian voter model for opinion formation in a society under the influence of an external oscillating propaganda and stochastic noise. Each agent of the population can hold one of two possible opinions on a given issue…
The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a…
We present a Bayesian approach to predict the clustering of opinions for a system of interacting agents from partial observations. The Bayesian formulation overcomes the unobservability of the system and quantifies the uncertainty in the…
Focusing on a specific crowd dynamics situation, including real life experiments and measurements, our paper targets a twofold aim: (1) we present a Bayesian probabilistic method to estimate the value and the uncertainty (in the form of a…
We investigate the opinion formation with upper and lower bounds. We formulate the binary exchange of opinions between two individuals, and effects of the self-thinking and political party using the relativistic Boltzmann-Vlasov type…
We investigate the formation of opinion against authority in an authoritarian society composed of agents with different levels of authority. We explore a "dissenting" opinion, held by lower-ranking, obedient, or less authoritative people,…
Understanding and quantifying polarization in social systems is important because of many reasons. It could for instance help to avoid segregation and conflicts in the society or to control polarized debates and predict their outcomes. In…
This work extends the recent opinion dynamics model from Cheng et al., emphasizing the role of group pressure in consensus formation. We generalize the findings to incorporate social influence algorithms with general time-varying,…
This paper introduces a new model of continuous opinion dynamics with random noise. The model belongs to the broad class of so called bounded confidence models. It differs from other popular bounded confidence models by the update rule,…
This paper introduces a model for opinion dynamics, where at each time step, randomly selected agents see their opinions - modeled as scalars in [0,1] - evolve depending on a local interaction function. In the classical Bounded Confidence…
Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…
This aim of this article is to explore the potential use of Wikipedia page view data for predicting electoral results. Responding to previous critiques of work using socially generated data to predict elections, which have argued that these…
Formation of consensus, in binary yes/no type of voting, is a well defined process. However, even in presence of clear incentives, the dynamics involved can be incredibly complex. Specifically, formations of large groups of similarly…