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In this work, we propose \texttt{TimeGrad}, an autoregressive model for multivariate probabilistic time series forecasting which samples from the data distribution at each time step by estimating its gradient. To this end, we use diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-09 Kashif Rasul , Calvin Seward , Ingmar Schuster , Roland Vollgraf

In this article, a general information-plus-noise transmission model is assumed, the receiver end of which is composed of a large number of sensors and is unaware of the noise pattern. For this model, and under reasonable assumptions, a set…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-06-12 Julia Vinogradova , Romain Couillet , Walid Hachem

This paper considers the problem of estimating linear dynamic system models when the observations are corrupted by random disturbances with nonstandard distributions. The paper is particularly motivated by applications where sensor…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-09 Johan Dahlin , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness

This letter reports on a new method of analysing experimentally gained time series with respect to different types of noise involved, namely, we show that it is possible to differentiate between dynamical and measurement noise. This method…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-07 M. Siefert , J. Peinke , R. Friedrich

We study a diagnosis scheme to reliably detect the active mode of discrete-time, switched affine systems in the presence of measurement noise and asynchronous switching. The proposed scheme consists of two parts: (i) the construction of a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-02 Jingwei Dong , Arman Sharifi Kolarijani , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani

In this work, an adaptive predictive control scheme for linear systems with unknown parameters and bounded additive disturbances is proposed. In contrast to related adaptive control approaches that robustly consider the parametric…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-03 Johannes Teutsch , Christopher Narr , Sebastian Kerz , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for the joint identification of system dynamics and noise covariance in linear systems, under general noise distributions beyond Gaussian. Specifically, we would like to simultaneously estimate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-16 Yang Hu , Na Li

Noise in data appears to be inevitable in most real-world machine learning applications and would cause severe overfitting problems. Not only can data features contain noise, but labels are also prone to be noisy due to human input. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Weipeng Huang , Qin Li , Yang Xiao , Cheng Qiao , Tie Cai , Junwei Liang , Neil J. Hurley , Guangyuan Piao

We propose a recursive Bayesian estimation procedure for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs based on message passing in a factor graph. Unlike recursive least-squares, our method produces full posterior distributions…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-04 T. N. Nisslbeck , Wouter M. Kouw

This work proposes a robust data-driven predictive control approach for unknown nonlinear systems in the presence of bounded process and measurement noise. Data-driven reachable sets are employed for the controller design instead of using…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-18 Mahsa Farjadnia , Amr Alanwar , Muhammad Umar B. Niazi , Marco Molinari , Karl Henrik Johansson

Online system identification algorithms are widely used for monitoring, diagnostics and control by continuously adapting to time-varying dynamics. Typically, these algorithms consider a model structure that lacks parsimony and offers…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-28 Koen Classens , Rodrigo A. González , Tom Oomen

In machine learning, a bias occurs whenever training sets are not representative for the test data, which results in unreliable models. The most common biases in data are arguably class imbalance and covariate shift. In this work, we aim to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-04 Patrick Glauner , Radu State , Petko Valtchev , Diogo Duarte

We study the problem of identifying the dynamics of a linear system when one has access to samples generated by a similar (but not identical) system, in addition to data from the true system. We use a weighted least squares approach and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-13 Lei Xin , Lintao Ye , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

Uncertainty estimation for unlabeled data is crucial to active learning. With a deep neural network employed as the backbone model, the data selection process is highly challenging due to the potential over-confidence of the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Xingjian Li , Pengkun Yang , Yangcheng Gu , Xueying Zhan , Tianyang Wang , Min Xu , Chengzhong Xu

Falsely annotated samples, also known as noisy labels, can significantly harm the performance of deep learning models. Two main approaches for learning with noisy labels are global noise estimation and data filtering. Global noise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Yuval Grinberg , Nimrod Harel , Jacob Goldberger , Ofir Lindenbaum

We study data-driven stabilization of continuous-time systems in autoregressive form when only noisy input-output data are available. First, we provide an operator-based characterization of the set of systems consistent with the data. Next,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Masashi Wakaiki

With the rapid increase of valuable observational, experimental and simulating data for complex systems, great efforts are being devoted to discovering governing laws underlying the evolution of these systems. However, the existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Yang Li , Jinqiao Duan

This paper introduces new techniques for using convex optimization to fit input-output data to a class of stable nonlinear dynamical models. We present an algorithm that guarantees consistent estimates of models in this class when a small…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-03-19 Mark M. Tobenkin , Ian R. Manchester , Alexandre Megretski

A method is proposed to generate an optimal fit of a number of connected linear trend segments onto time-series data. To be able to efficiently handle many lines, the method employs a stochastic search procedure to determine optimal…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-11 Myrl G. Marmarelis

This study presents a physics-informed machine learning-based control method for nonlinear dynamic systems with highly noisy measurements. Existing data-driven control methods that use machine learning for system identification cannot…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-25 Mason Ma , Jiajie Wu , Chase Post , Tony Shi , Jingang Yi , Tony Schmitz , Hong Wang