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Consider a population of fixed size that evolves over time. At each time, the genealogical structure of the population can be described by a coalescent tree whose branches are traced back to the most recent common ancestor of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-14 Jason Schweinsberg

Inference of the marginal likelihood of sample allele configurations using backward algorithms yields identical results with the Kingman coalescent, the Moran model, and the diffusion model (up to a scaling of time). For inference of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-20 Claus Vogl , Sandra Peer , Lynette Caitlin Mikula

Analysis of observational studies increasingly confronts the challenge of determining which of a possibly high-dimensional set of available covariates are required to satisfy the assumption of ignorable treatment assignment for estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-23 Chanmin Kim , Mauricio Tec , Corwin M Zigler

Bayesian phylogenetics is vital for understanding evolutionary dynamics, and requires accurate and efficient approximation of posterior distributions over trees. In this work, we develop a variational Bayesian approach for ultrametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-16 Evan Sidrow , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Lloyd T. Elliott

Bertoin and Le Gall (2003) introduced a certain probability measure valued Markov process that describes the evolution of a population, such that a sample from this population would exhibit a genealogy given by the so-called…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Nordvall Lagerås

One of the main research areas in Bayesian Nonparametrics is the proposal and study of priors which generalize the Dirichlet process. Here we exploit theoretical properties of Poisson random measures in order to provide a comprehensive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Lancelot F. James , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Pruenster

Compared to a neutral model, purifying selection distorts the structure of genealogies and hence alters the patterns of sampled genetic variation. Although these distortions may be common in nature, our understanding of how we expect…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-05-30 Aleksandra M. Walczak , Lauren E. Nicolaisen , Joshua B. Plotkin , Michael M. Desai

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 J. C. Lemm

Interacting particle systems undergoing repeated mutation and selection steps model genetic evolution, and also describe a broad class of sequential Monte Carlo methods. The genealogical tree embedded into the system is important in both…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-20 Suzie Brown , Paul A. Jenkins , Adam M. Johansen , Jere Koskela

We investigate the genealogy of a sample of $k\geq1$ particles chosen uniformly without replacement from a population alive at large times in a critical discrete-time Galton-Watson process in a varying environment (GWVE). We will show that…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-04 Simon C. Harris , Sandra Palau , Juan Carlos Pardo

When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-21 George H. John , Pat Langley

Widely used models in genetics include the Wright-Fisher diffusion and its moment dual, Kingman's coalescent. Each has a multilocus extension but under neither extension is the sampling distribution available in closed-form, and their…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-24 Paul A. Jenkins , Paul Fearnhead , Yun S. Song

Consider a haploid population which has evolved through an exchangeable reproduction dynamics, and in which all individuals alive at time $t$ have a most recent common ancestor (MRCA) who lived at time $A_t$, say. As time goes on, not only…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 P. Pfaffelhuber , A. Wakolbinger

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-28 Weichang Yu , Lamiae Azizi , John T. Ormerod

Background: Continuous traits evolution of a group of taxa that are correlated through a phylogenetic tree is commonly modelled using parametric stochastic differential equations to represent deterministic change of trait through time,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-03 Bayu Brahmantio , Krzysztof Bartoszek , Etka Yapar

We consider a model of a population in which individuals are sampled from different species. The Yule-Kingman nested coalescent describes the genealogy of the sample when each species merges with another randomly chosen species with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Toni Gui

Studying how diverse human populations are related is of historical and anthropological interest, in addition to providing a realistic null model for testing for signatures of natural selection or disease associations. Furthermore,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-10 Jeffrey P. Spence , Matthias Steinrücken , Jonathan Terhorst , Yun S. Song

We propose a general Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference in the point treatment setting. The joint distribution of the observed data (outcome, treatment, and confounders) is modeled using an enriched Dirichlet process.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-01 Jason Roy , Kirsten J Lum , Michael J. Daniels , Bret Zeldow , Jordan Dworkin , Vincent Lo Re

Count data appears in various disciplines. In this work, a new method to analyze time series count data has been proposed. The method assumes exponentially decaying covariance structure, a special class of the Mat\'ern covariance function,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-19 Soudeep Deb

Statistical inference on biodiversity has a rich history going back to RA Fisher. An influential ecological theory suggests the existence of a fundamental biodiversity number, denoted $\alpha$, which coincides with the precision parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Tommaso Rigon , Ching-Lung Hsu , David B. Dunson
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