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Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Rocco Caprio , Adam M. Johansen

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-10 Sinan Yıldırım , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

Efficient Monte Carlo (MC) sampling of many-body systems with long-range electrostatics is often limited by the cost of per-move energy-difference evaluation under periodic boundary conditions. We present DMK-MC, an accelerated MC method…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-01-15 Xuanzhao Gao , Shidong Jiang , Jiuyang Liang , Qi Zhou

We discuss modern ideas in Monte Carlo algorithms in the simplified setting of the one-dimensional anharmonic oscillator. After reviewing the connection between molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo, we introduce to the Metropolis and the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-08-07 Gabriele Tartero , Werner Krauth

We introduce a new micro-macro Markov chain Monte Carlo method (mM-MCMC) to sample invariant distributions of molecular dynamics systems that exhibit a time-scale separation between the microscopic (fast) dynamics, and the macroscopic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-24 Hannes Vandecasteele , Giovanni Samaey

In statistical analysis, Monte Carlo (MC) stands as a classical numerical integration method. When encountering challenging sample problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly employed method. However, the MCMC estimator is biased…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-05 Jiarui Du , Zhijian He

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-27 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander , F. Louzada

The detection of gravitational waves from extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) in space-borne antennas like Taiji and LISA promises deep insights into strong-field gravity and black hole physics. However, the complex, highly degenerate, and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-08-27 Bo Liang , Chang Liu , Hanlin Song , Zhenwei Lyu , Minghui Du , Peng Xu , Ziren Luo , Sensen He , Haohao Gu , Tianyu Zhao , Manjia Liang Yuxiang Xu , Li-e Qiang , Mingming Sun , Wei-Liang Qian

We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Gareth W. Peters , Geoff R. Hosack , Keith R. Hayes

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides a feasible method for inferring Hidden Markov models, however, it is often computationally prohibitive, especially constrained by the curse of dimensionality, as the Monte Carlo sampler traverses…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Xiongming Dai , Gerald Baumgartner

Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…

We introduce a class of Adapted Increasingly Rarely Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AirMCMC) algorithms where the underlying Markov kernel is allowed to be changed based on the whole available chain output but only at specific time points…

Computation · Statistics 2018-01-30 Cyril Chimisov , Krzysztof Latuszynski , Gareth Roberts

The success of the "Cluster Variation Method" (CVM) in reproducing quite accurately the free energies of Monte Carlo (MC) calculations on Ising models is explained in terms of identifying a cancellation of errors: We show that the CVM…

Materials Science · Physics 2009-10-31 Luiz G. Ferreira , C. Wolverton , Alex Zunger

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-21 Sohail Reddy , Hillary Fairbanks

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, constitute a class of algorithms used to approximate expectations with respect to a sequence of probability distributions as well as the normalising constants of those…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-14 Axel Finke , Arnaud Doucet , Adam M. Johansen

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-03 Murali Haran , Luke Tierney

Bernoulli factory MCMC algorithms implement accept-reject Markov chains without explicit computation of acceptance probabilities, and are used to target posterior distributions associated with intractable likelihood models. Intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-18 Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon , Flávio B. Gonçalves

Advances in digital sensors, digital data storage and communications have resulted in systems being capable of accumulating large collections of data. In the light of dealing with the challenges that massive data present, this work proposes…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-09 Allan De Freitas , François Septier , Lyudmila Mihaylova

It is commonly admitted that non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms usually yield more accurate MCMC estimators than their reversible counterparts. In this note, we show that in addition to their variance reduction…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-27 Marie Vialaret , Florian Maire

The Monte Carlo with Absorbing Markov Chains (MCAMC) method is introduced. This method is a generalization of the rejection-free method known as the $n$-fold way. The MCAMC algorithm is applied to the study of the very low-temperature…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 M. A. Novotny
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