English
Related papers

Related papers: Assessing the reliability of ensemble forecasting …

200 papers

Model checking plays an important role in linear regression as model misspecification seriously affects the validity and efficiency of regression analysis. In practice, model checking is often performed by subjectively evaluating the plot…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-19 Rok Blagus , Jakob Peterlin , Janez Stare

Here we introduce the idea of using rational expectations, a core concept in economics and finance, as a tool to predict the optimal failure time for a wide class of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems. We illustrate the concept by…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-12-21 Jorgen Vitting Andersen , Roy Cerqueti , Jessica Riccioni

One of the most promising approaches for complex technical systems analysis employs ensemble methods of classification. Ensemble methods enable to build a reliable decision rules for feature space classification in the presence of many…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-01-11 Alexei Zhukov , Victor Kurbatsky , Nikita Tomin , Denis Sidorov , Daniil Panasetsky , Aoife Foley

Randomness or mutual independence is an important underlying assumption for most widely used statistical methods for circular data. Verifying this assumption is essential to ensure the validity and reliability of the resulting inferences.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Shriya Gehlot , Arnab Kumar Laha

Robustness of linear systems with constant coefficients is considered. There exist methods and tools for analyzing the stability of systems with random or deterministic uncertainties. At the same time, there are no approaches for the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-08 Andrey Tremba

Ranking populations such as institutions based on certain characteristics is often of interest, and these ranks are typically estimated using samples drawn from the populations. Due to sample randomness, it is important to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Onrina Chandra , Min-ge Xie

The goal of ensemble forecasting is to maximise sharpness subject to reliability. Marginal reliability means that, over all cases, the ensemble is statistically consistent with reality: the ensemble mean is unbiased, the expected ensemble…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Jonas Spaeth , Christopher D. Roberts

The purpose of this article is to introduce a new analytical framework dedicated to measuring performance of recommender systems. The standard approach is to assess the quality of a system by means of accuracy related statistics. However,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-10-29 Szymon Chojnacki , Mieczysław Kłopotek

The bootstrap is a popular and convenient method for quantifying the authority of an empirical ordering of attributes, for example of a ranking of the performance of institutions or of the influence of genes on a response variable. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Peter Hall , Hugh Miller

We consider the problem of goodness-of-fit testing for a model that has at least one unknown parameter that cannot be eliminated by transformation. Examples of such problems can be as simple as testing whether a sample consists of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-28 Sean van der Merwe

We consider the error distribution in functional linear models with scalar response and functional covariate. Different asymptotic expansions of the empirical distribution function and the empirical characteristic function based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Natalie Neumeyer , Leonie Selk

In this paper, we investigate various stochastic orderings for series and parallel systems with independent and heterogeneous components having lifetimes following the proportional odds model. We also investigate comparisons between system…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Pradip Kundu , Nil Kamal Hazra , Asok K. Nanda

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

Stochastic comparisons of series and parallel systems are important in many areas of engineering, operations research and reliability analysis. These comparisons allow for the evaluation of the performance and reliability of systems under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-09 CM Revathi , Rajesh Moharana , Raju Bhakta

We propose a class of locally and asymptotically optimal tests, based on multivariate ranks and signs for the homogeneity of scatter matrices in $m$ elliptical populations. Contrary to the existing parametric procedures, these tests remain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Marc Hallin , Davy Paindaveine

It is preferred that feature selectors be \textit{stable} for better interpretabity and robust prediction. Ensembling is known to be effective for improving the stability of feature selectors. Since ensembling is time-consuming, it is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Rina Onda , Zhengyan Gao , Masaaki Kotera , Kenta Oono

Ensembles, which employ a set of classifiers to enhance classification accuracy collectively, are crucial in the era of big data. However, although there is general agreement that the relation between ensemble size and its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Enes Bektas , Fazli Can

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

Results of neural network learning are always subject to some variability, due to the sensitivity to initial conditions, to convergence to local minima, and, sometimes more dramatically, to sampling variability. This paper presents a set of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Eric De Bodt , Marie Cottrell , Michel Verleysen

Bayesian inference for rank-order problems is frustrated by the absence of an explicit likelihood function. This hurdle can be overcome by assuming a latent normal representation that is consistent with the ordinal information in the data:…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-20 Johnny van Doorn , Alexander Ly , Maarten Marsman , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers