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Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Ilia Nouretdinov , Valery Manokhin , Alex Gammerman

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Huajun Xi , Jianguo Huang , Kangdao Liu , Lei Feng , Hongxin Wei

Traditional recommendation algorithms develop techniques that can help people to choose desirable items. However, in many real-world applications, along with a set of recommendations, it is also essential to quantify each recommendation's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-26 Venkateswara Rao Kagita , Arun K Pujari , Vineet Padmanabhan , Vikas Kumar

Research on human-AI teams usually provides experts with a single label, which ignores the uncertainty in a model's recommendation. Conformal prediction (CP) is a well established line of research that focuses on building a theoretically…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-27 Varun Babbar , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller

Autonomous systems use extensively learning-enabled components such as deep neural networks (DNNs) for prediction and decision making. In this paper, we utilize a feedback loop between learning-enabled components used for classification and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Dimitrios Boursinos , Xenofon Koutsoukos

Continuous Integration (CI) requires efficient regression testing to ensure software quality without significantly delaying its CI builds. This warrants the need for techniques to reduce regression testing time, such as Test Case…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Ahmadreza Saboor Yaraghi , Mojtaba Bagherzadeh , Nafiseh Kahani , Lionel Briand

Accurately labeling biomedical data presents a challenge. Traditional semi-supervised learning methods often under-utilize available unlabeled data. To address this, we propose a novel reliability-based training data cleaning method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-15 Xianghao Zhan , Qinmei Xu , Yuanning Zheng , Guangming Lu , Olivier Gevaert

Medical imaging classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, which prevents their deployment in medical clinics. We present an algorithm that can modify any classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Roy Hirsch , Jacob Goldberger

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. We build upon the RKHS-based framework of Gibbs et al. (2023), which leverages families of covariate shifts to provide approximate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Yating Liu , Yeo Jin Jung , Zixuan Wu , So Won Jeong , Claire Donnat

Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated prediction sets with precise coverage guarantees for any classification model. However, its reliance…

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

In large-scale prediction problems, exhaustively following up on all test units is often impractical and inefficient, motivating a selective reporting strategy that fulfills the dual requirements of informativeness and trustworthiness.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Wangcheng Li , Guanlan Zhao , Xu Guo , Wenguang Sun

Existing evaluations of conformal prediction, such as prediction efficiency and test-conditional coverage, are defined in expectation over the calibration data. In practice, when only one calibration set of limited size is available,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Yinjie Min , Liuhua Peng , Changliang Zou

Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms that output prediction sets that have a guarantee of marginal validity for finite samples with minimal distributional assumptions. This is a property that makes conformal predictors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Anthony Bellotti

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-23 Glenn Shafer , Vladimir Vovk

With the increasing use of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in scientific research comes the need for reliable uncertainty quantification. When taking a measurement it is not enough to provide the result, we also have to declare how…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-05-09 Ann-Kristin Malz , Gregory Ashton , Nicolo Colombo

Conformal prediction is a method of producing prediction sets that can be applied on top of a wide range of prediction algorithms. The method has a guaranteed coverage probability under the standard IID assumption regardless of whether the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-04-09 Evgeny Burnaev , Vladimir Vovk

Conformal Prediction is a robust framework that ensures reliable coverage across machine learning tasks. Although recent studies have applied conformal prediction to graph neural networks, they have largely emphasized post-hoc prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Yuntian He , Pranav Maneriker , Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Francesca Cairoli , Luca Bortolussi , Nicola Paoletti

In astronomy, we frequently face the decision problem: does this data contain a signal? Typically, a statistical approach is used, which requires a threshold. The choice of threshold presents a common challenge in settings where signals and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-06-10 Gregory Ashton , Nicolo Colombo , Ian Harry , Surabhi Sachdev
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