Related papers: Model identification for ARMA time series through …
In this paper we address the problem of predicting a time series using the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model, under minimal assumptions on the noise terms. Using regret minimization techniques, we develop effective online learning…
Fitting autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models requires model identification before parameter estimation. Model identification involves determining the order of the autoregressive and moving average components which is…
Linear time series modelling is dominated by the use of purely autoregressive models even though incorporating moving average components can greatly improve parsimony. We present a convex formulation for vector-ARMA system identification…
The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is a classical, and arguably one of the most studied approaches to model time series data. It has compelling theoretical properties and is widely used among practitioners. More recent deep…
Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a…
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…
We express the classic ARMA time-series model as a directed graphical model. In doing so, we find that the deterministic relationships in the model make it effectively impossible to use the EM algorithm for learning model parameters. To…
This paper proposes a simple yet effective convolutional module for long-term time series forecasting. The proposed block, inspired by the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, consists of two convolutional components:…
We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…
Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…
In this paper, five different deep learning models are being compared for predicting travel time. These models are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, recurrent neural network (RNN) model, autoregressive (AR) model,…
Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently hold state-of-the-art performance in likelihood-based modeling of image and audio data. Generally, neural network based ARMs are designed to allow fast inference, but sampling from these models is…
Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for…
The positive link prediction (PLP) problem is formulated in a system identification framework: we consider dynamic graphical models for auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) Gaussian random processes. For the identification of the…
In this paper we study different approaches for time series modeling. The forecasting approaches using linear models, ARIMA alpgorithm, XGBoost machine learning algorithm are described. Results of different model combinations are shown. For…
Recently, with the development of deep learning, end-to-end neural network architectures have been increasingly applied to condition monitoring signals. They have demonstrated superior performance for fault detection and classification, in…
This paper derives a Minimum Message Length (MML) criterion for the model selection of the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model. The MML87 performances on the ARMA model compared with other well known model selection…
We develop a new efficient algorithm for the analysis of large-scale time series data. We firstly define rolling averages, derive their analytical properties, and establish their asymptotic distribution. These theoretical results are…
We propose Significance-Offset Convolutional Neural Network, a deep convolutional network architecture for regression of multivariate asynchronous time series. The model is inspired by standard autoregressive (AR) models and gating…