Related papers: Fast and scalable non-parametric Bayesian inferenc…
We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…
We consider the issue of reporting the result of search experiment in the most unbiased and efficient way, i.e. in a way which allows an easy interpretation and combination of results and which do not depend on whether the experimenters…
Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…
We propose a novel tree-based ensemble method, named XGBoostPP, to nonparametrically estimate the intensity of a point process as a function of covariates. It extends the use of gradient-boosted regression trees (Chen & Guestrin, 2016) to…
The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…
In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…
We consider a doubly stochastic Poisson process with stochastic intensity $\lambda_t =n q\left(X_t\right)$ where $X$ is a continuous It\^o semimartingale and $n$ is an integer. Both processes are observed continuously over a fixed period…
Cascades of Poisson processes are probabilistic models for spatio-temporal phenomena in which (i) previous events may trigger subsequent events, and (ii) both the background and triggering processes are conditionally Poisson. Such phenomena…
In this paper we present a novel inference methodology to perform Bayesian inference for spatiotemporal Cox processes where the intensity function depends on a multivariate Gaussian process. Dynamic Gaussian processes are introduced to…
We introduce a semi-parametric estimator of the Poisson intensity parameter of a spatial stationary Gibbs point process. Under very mild assumptions satisfied by a large class of Gibbs models, we establish its strong consistency and…
We present a rigorous description of the general problem of aperture photometry in high energy astrophysics photon-count images, in which the statistical noise model is Poisson, not Gaussian. We compute the full posterior probability…
We develop a prior probability model for temporal Poisson process intensities through structured mixtures of Erlang densities with common scale parameter, mixing on the integer shape parameters. The mixture weights are constructed through…
Recent years have seen an increased interest in the application of methods and techniques commonly associated with machine learning and artificial intelligence to spatial statistics. Here, in a celebration of the ten-year anniversary of the…
Analyzing the underlying structure of multiple time-sequences provides insights into the understanding of social networks and human activities. In this work, we present the \emph{Bayesian nonparametric Poisson process allocation} (BaNPPA),…
The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…
We consider an inhomogeneous Poisson process $X$ on $[0,T]$. The intensity function of $X$ is supposed to be strictly positive and smooth on $[0,T]$ except at the point $\theta$, in which it has either a 0-type singularity (tends to 0 like…
In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric…
Data on count processes arise in a variety of applications, including longitudinal, spatial and imaging studies measuring count responses. The literature on statistical models for dependent count data is dominated by models built from…
We propose a scalable framework for inference in an inhomogeneous Poisson process modeled by a continuous sigmoidal Cox process that assumes the corresponding intensity function is given by a Gaussian process (GP) prior transformed with a…
A nonparametric Bayes approach is proposed for the problem of estimating a sparse sequence based on Gaussian random variables. We adopt the popular two-group prior with one component being a point mass at zero, and the other component being…