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We introduce a data-driven dynamic factor framework for modeling the joint evolution of high-dimensional covariates and responses without parametric assumptions. Standard factor models applied to covariates alone often lose explanatory…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-16 Graeme Baker , Agostino Capponi , J. Antonio Sidaoui

There is a high interest in accelerating multiscale models using data-driven surrogate modeling techniques. Creating a large training dataset encompassing all relevant load scenarios is essential for a good surrogate, yet the computational…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-24 J. Storm , W. Sun , I. B. C. M. Rocha , F. P. van der Meer

We propose a novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric time series models where the conditional expectation is modeled through a parametric function. The proposed class of estimators is based on a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Mirko Armillotta , Paolo Gorgi

We present a new approach for constructing a data-driven surrogate model and using it for Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models. We first use parameter observations and Gaussian Process regression to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Jing Li , Alexandre M Tartakovsky

Many application areas rely on models that can be readily simulated but lack a closed-form likelihood, or an accurate approximation under arbitrary parameter values. Existing parameter estimation approaches in this setting are generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-04 Rui Zhang , Oksana A. Chkrebtii , Dongbin Xiu

We extend recent work (Brehmer, et. al., 2018) that use neural networks as surrogate models for likelihood-free inference. As in the previous work, we exploit the fact that the joint likelihood ratio and joint score, conditioned on both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-06 Markus Stoye , Johann Brehmer , Gilles Louppe , Juan Pavez , Kyle Cranmer

We consider estimation in a particular semiparametric regression model for the mean of a counting process with ``panel count'' data. The basic model assumption is that the conditional mean function of the counting process is of the form…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Jon A. Wellner , Ying Zhang

This paper presents a Bayesian sampling approach to bandwidth estimation for the local linear estimator of the regression function in a nonparametric regression model. In the Bayesian sampling approach, the error density is approximated by…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Han Lin Shang , Xibin Zhang

This paper presents a general framework for the estimation of regression models with circular covariates, where the conditional distribution of the response given the covariate can be specified through a parametric model. The estimation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-06 María Alonso-Pena , Irène Gijbels , Rosa M. Crujeiras

Data integration methods aim to extract low-dimensional embeddings from high-dimensional outcomes to remove unwanted variations, such as batch effects and unmeasured covariates, across heterogeneous datasets. However, multiple hypothesis…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-15 Jin-Hong Du , Kathryn Roeder , Larry Wasserman

In this work, we explore the theoretical properties of conditional deep generative models under the statistical framework of distribution regression where the response variable lies in a high-dimensional ambient space but concentrates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Shivam Kumar , Yun Yang , Lizhen Lin

Existing identification and estimation methods for semiparametric sample selection models rely heavily on exclusion restrictions. However, it is difficult in practice to find a credible excluded variable that has a correlation with…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-03 Zhewen Pan , Yifan Zhang

Supervised manifold learning methods learn data representations by preserving the geometric structure of data while enhancing the separation between data samples from different classes. In this work, we propose a theoretical study of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-08 Elif Vural , Christine Guillemot

In many applications (in particular information systems, such as pattern recognition, machine learning, cheminformatics, bioinformatics to name but a few) the assessment of uncertainty is essential - i.e., the estimation of the underlying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-26 Hamse Y. Mussa , Avid M. Afzal

In the context of regressing a response $Y$ on a predictor $X$, we consider estimating the local modes of the distribution of $Y$ given $X=x$ when $X$ is prone to measurement error. We propose two nonparametric estimation methods, with one…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-28 Haiming Zhou , Xianzheng Huang

This chapter deals with kernel methods as a special class of techniques for surrogate modeling. Kernel methods have proven to be efficient in machine learning, pattern recognition and signal analysis due to their flexibility, excellent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-31 Gabriele Santin , Bernard Haasdonk

In this contribution we present an accelerated optimization-based approach for combined state and parameter reduction of a parametrized linear control system which is then used as a surrogate model in a Bayesian inverse setting. Following…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-08-22 Christian Himpe , Mario Ohlberger

Parametric inference posits a statistical model that is a specified family of probability distributions. Restricted inference, e.g., restricted likelihood ratio testing, attempts to exploit the structure of a statistical submodel that is a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-22 Michael W. Trosset , Carey E. Priebe

Conventional likelihood-based information criteria for model selection rely on the distribution assumption of data. However, for complex data that are increasingly available in many scientific fields, the specification of their underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-25 Chixiang Chen , Ming Wang , Rongling Wu , Runze Li

Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Carlo Kneissl , Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok