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Profile likelihood confidence intervals are a robust alternative to Wald's method if the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are not met. However, the constrained optimization problem defining profile likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-10 Samuel M. Fischer , Mark A. Lewis

Existing similarity-based weakly supervised learning approaches often rely on precise similarity annotations between data pairs, which may inadvertently expose sensitive label information and raise privacy risks. To mitigate this issue, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Meng Wei , Zhongnian Li , Peng Ying , Xinzheng Xu

In image classification tasks, deep learning models are vulnerable to image distortions i.e. their accuracy significantly drops if the input images are distorted. An image-classifier is considered "reliable" if its accuracy on distorted…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Dang Nguyen , Sunil Gupta , Kien Do , Svetha Venkatesh

Large Language Models (LLMs), including ChatGPT and LLaMA, are susceptible to generating hallucinated answers in a confident tone. While efforts to elicit and calibrate confidence scores have proven useful, recent findings show that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Lihu Chen , Alexandre Perez-Lebel , Fabian M. Suchanek , Gaël Varoquaux

It's better to say "I can't answer" than to answer incorrectly. This selective prediction ability is crucial for NLP systems to be reliably deployed in real-world applications. Prior work has shown that existing selective prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-08 Neeraj Varshney , Swaroop Mishra , Chitta Baral

For classification models based on neural networks, the maximum predicted class probability is often used as a confidence score. This score rarely predicts well the probability of making a correct prediction and requires a post-processing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Adrien LeCoz , Stéphane Herbin , Faouzi Adjed

In safety-critical applications, language models should be able to characterize their uncertainty with meaningful probabilities. Many uncertainty quantification approaches require supervised data; however, finding suitable unseen…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Sophia Hager , Simon Zeng , Nicholas Andrews

In safety-critical applications data-driven models must not only be accurate but also provide reliable uncertainty estimates. This property, commonly referred to as calibration, is essential for risk-aware decision-making. In regression a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Jelke Wibbeke , Nico Schönfisch , Sebastian Rohjans , Andreas Rauh

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

Speech classification has attracted increasing attention due to its wide applications, particularly in classifying physical and mental states. However, these tasks are challenging due to the high variability in speech signals. Ensemble…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-25 Bagus Tris Atmaja , Felix Burkhardt

The assessment of binary classifier performance traditionally centers on discriminative ability using metrics, such as accuracy. However, these metrics often disregard the model's inherent uncertainty, especially when dealing with sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Agathe Fernandes Machado , Arthur Charpentier , Emmanuel Flachaire , Ewen Gallic , François Hu

Pre-training data detection for LLMs is essential for addressing copyright concerns and mitigating benchmark contamination. Existing methods mainly focus on the likelihood-based statistical features or heuristic signals before and after…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Ruiqi Zhang , Lingxiang Wang , Hainan Zhang , Zhiming Zheng , Yanyan Lan

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

Calibration can reduce overconfident predictions of deep neural networks, but can calibration also accelerate training? In this paper, we show that it can when used to prioritize some examples for performing subset selection. We study the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Ganesh Tata , Gautham Krishna Gudur , Gopinath Chennupati , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

Causal discovery can be a powerful tool for investigating causality when a system can be observed but is inaccessible to experiments in practice. Despite this, it is rarely used in any scientific or medical fields. One of the major hurdles…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-07 Erich Kummerfeld , Alexander Rix

State-of-the-art machine learning models require access to significant amount of annotated data in order to achieve the desired level of performance. While unlabelled data can be largely available and even abundant, annotation process can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Rahaf Aljundi , Nikolay Chumerin , Daniel Olmeda Reino

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Angelika Kimmig , Murat Sensoy

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Meelis Kull , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Markus Kängsepp , Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Peter Flach

Testing of deep learning models is challenging due to the excessive number and complexity of computations involved. As a result, test data selection is performed manually and in an ad hoc way. This raises the question of how we can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-01 Wei Ma , Mike Papadakis , Anestis Tsakmalis , Maxime Cordy , Yves Le Traon

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Xizhong Yang , Haotian Zhang , Huiming Wang , Mofei Song