Related papers: Full version: An evaluation of estimation techniqu…
Stochastic PDE eigenvalue problems are useful models for quantifying the uncertainty in several applications from the physical sciences and engineering, e.g., structural vibration analysis, the criticality of a nuclear reactor or photonic…
This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…
Recently-proposed particle MCMC methods provide a flexible way of performing Bayesian inference for parameters governing stochastic kinetic models defined as Markov (jump) processes (MJPs). Each iteration of the scheme requires an estimate…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a useful class of methods for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is computationally intractable. In practice, the basic ABC algorithm may be inefficient in the presence of discrepancy…
We present a unified theory of the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) and determinant quantum Monte Carlo (DQMC) methods using a novel density matrix formulation of VMC. We introduce an efficient algorithm for VMC to compute correlation…
This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…
Sampling-based approaches are widely used in systems without analytic models to estimate risk or find optimal control. However, gathering sufficient data in such scenarios can be prohibitively costly. On the other hand, in many situations,…
The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to evaluate the imaginary-time path integral of a quantum oscillator with a potential that includes both a quadratic term and a quartic term whose coupling is varied by several orders of…
In this paper we investigate the performance of a variety of estimation techniques for the scale and shape parameter of the Lomax distribution. These methods include traditional methods such as the maximum likelihood estimator and the…
Deep learning algorithms have been widely used to solve linear Kolmogorov partial differential equations~(PDEs) in high dimensions, where the loss function is defined as a mathematical expectation. We propose to use the randomized…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…
The term ``sequential Monte Carlo methods'' or, equivalently, ``particle filters,'' refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (\pi_t). We…
Because of their robustness, efficiency and non-intrusiveness, Monte Carlo methods are probably the most popular approach in uncertainty quantification to computing expected values of quantities of interest (QoIs). Multilevel Monte Carlo…
Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed. Simulation-based inference…
Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at…
Multivariate shortfall risk measures provide a principled framework for quantifying systemic risk and determining capital allocations prior to aggregation in interconnected financial systems. Despite their well established theoretical…
Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…
This study analyzes the nonasymptotic convergence behavior of the quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method with applications to linear elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs) with lognormal coefficients. Building upon the error analysis…