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Bayesian cubature provides a flexible framework for numerical integration, in which a priori knowledge on the integrand can be encoded and exploited. This additional flexibility, compared to many classical cubature methods, comes at a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-29 Toni Karvonen , Simo Särkkä , Chris. J. Oates

Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in the 1980s, no systematic and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Maren Mahsereci , Toni Karvonen

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-01 Xiaoyue Xi , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

Automatic cubatures approximate multidimensional integrals to user-specified error tolerances. For high dimensional problems, it makes sense to fix the sampling density but determine the sample size, $n$, automatically. Bayesian cubature…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-02-16 R. Jagadeeswaran , Fred J. Hickernell

Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a method for solving numerical integration problems in a Bayesian manner, which allows users to quantify their uncertainty about the solution. The standard approach to BQ is based on a Gaussian process (GP)…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Harrison Zhu , Xing Liu , Ruya Kang , Zhichao Shen , Seth Flaxman , François-Xavier Briol

We propose a novel approach for estimating conditional or parametric expectations in the setting where obtaining samples or evaluating integrands is costly. Through the framework of probabilistic numerical methods (such as Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Zonghao Chen , Masha Naslidnyk , Arthur Gretton , François-Xavier Briol

Bayesian cubature (BC) is a popular inferential perspective on the cubature of expensive integrands, wherein the integrand is emulated using a stochastic process model. Several approaches have been put forward to encode sequential…

Computation · Statistics 2019-10-09 Matthew A Fisher , Chris J Oates , Catherine Powell , Aretha Teckentrup

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

Integration over non-negative integrands is a central problem in machine learning (e.g. for model averaging, (hyper-)parameter marginalisation, and computing posterior predictive distributions). Bayesian Quadrature is a probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-05 Ed Wagstaff , Saad Hamid , Michael Osborne

In numerical integration, cubature methods are effective, especially when the integrands can be well-approximated by known test functions, such as polynomials. However, the construction of cubature formulas has not generally been known, and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-31 Satoshi Hayakawa

Automatic cubatures approximate integrals to user-specified error tolerances. For high dimensional problems, it is difficult to adaptively change the sampling pattern to focus on peaks because peaks can hide more easily in high dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-10 Jagadeeswaran Rathinavel

Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a model-based numerical integration method that is able to increase sample efficiency by encoding and leveraging known structure of the integration task at hand. In this paper, we explore priors that encode…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-06 Masha Naslidnyk , Javier Gonzalez , Maren Mahsereci

We develop efficient numerical integration methods for computing an integral whose integrand is a product of a smooth function and the Gaussian function with a small standard deviation. Traditional numerical integration methods applied to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-12 Yunyun Ma , Yuesheng Xu

There is renewed interest in formulating integration as an inference problem, motivated by obtaining a full distribution over numerical error that can be propagated through subsequent computation. Current methods, such as Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-01 François-Xavier Briol , Chris J. Oates , Mark Girolami , Michael A. Osborne

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods for numerical integration offer significant advantages over their non-Bayesian counterparts: they can encode prior information about the integrand, and can quantify uncertainty over estimates of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-12 Katharina Ott , Michael Tiemann , Philipp Hennig , François-Xavier Briol

Gau{\ss} cubature (multidimensional numerical integration) rules are the natural generalisation of the 1D Gau{\ss} rules. They are optimal in the sense that they exactly integrate polynomials of as high a degree as possible for a particular…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-20 David De Wit

In this paper, we introduce the notion of Gaussian processes indexed by probability density functions for extending the Mat\'ern family of covariance functions. We use some tools from information geometry to improve the efficiency and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-09 A. Fradi , Y. Feunteun , C. Samir , M. Baklouti , F. Bachoc , J-M. Loubes

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig

To address the common problem of high dimensionality in tensor regressions, we introduce a generalized tensor random projection method that embeds high-dimensional tensor-valued covariates into low-dimensional subspaces with minimal loss of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-03 Roberto Casarin , Radu Craiu , Qing Wang

Bayesian inference and Gaussian processes are widely used in applications ranging from robotics and control to biological systems. Many of these applications are safety-critical and require a characterization of the uncertainty associated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-26 Luca Cardelli , Marta Kwiatkowska , Luca Laurenti , Andrea Patane
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