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Recently observation of random walks in complex environments like the cell and other glassy systems revealed that the spreading of particles, at its tails, follows a spatial exponential decay instead of the canonical Gaussian. We use the…
In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…
We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…
This paper addresses heavy-tailed large deviation estimates for the distribution tail of functionals of a class of spectrally one-sided L\'evy process. Our contribution is to show that these estimates remain valid in a near-critical regime.…
We show that the quotient of Levy processes of jump-diffusion type has a fat-tailed distribution. An application is to price theory in economics. We show that fat tails arise endogenously from modeling of price change based on an excess…
Stable laws can be tempered by modifying the L\'evy measure to cool the probability of large jumps. Tempered stable laws retain their signature power law behavior at infinity, and infinite divisibility. This paper develops random walk…
We analyze the stationary tail of a fixed-point equation arising in branching processes with state-independent immigration, when both immigration and offspring distributions have heavy tails with boundary index one. We prove that \[ P(X >…
For one-dimensional Jump-Drift and Jump-Diffusion processes converging towards some steady state, the large deviations of a long dynamical trajectory are described from two perspectives. Firstly, the joint probability of the empirical…
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
We obtain concentration and large deviation for the sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with heavy-tailed distributions. Our concentration results are concerned with random variables whose distributions satisfy…
The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…
We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…
The Central Limit Theorem states that, in the limit of a large number of terms, an appropriately scaled sum of independent random variables yields another random variable whose probability distribution tends to a stable distribution. The…
Fluctuations of global additive quantities, like total energy or magnetization for instance, can in principle be described by statistics of sums of (possibly correlated) random variables. Yet, it turns out that extreme values (the largest…
We consider a system of $N$ interacting particles, described by SDEs driven by Poisson random measures, where the coefficients depend on the empirical measure of the system. Every particle jumps with a jump rate depending on its position.…
We give an elementary probabilistic proof of Veraverbeke's Theorem for the asymptotic distribution of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. The proof gives insight into the principle that the maximum…
Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…
We consider a stochastic process driven by a diffusion and jumps. We devise a technique, which is based on a discrete record of observations, for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. The…
In probability theory and statistics, the IID model represents a single population, and a large, potentially infinite sample from this population. Main theorems, in particular the central limit theorem and laws of large number (LLN) assure…