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Anomaly detection methods are widely used but often rely on ad hoc rules or strong assumptions, and they often focus on tail events, missing ``inlier'' anomalies that occur in low-density gaps between modes. We propose a unified framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Rob J Hyndman , David T. Frazier

We consider the problem of estimating the state transition matrix of a linear time-invariant (LTI) system, given access to multiple independent trajectories sampled from the system. Several recent papers have conducted a non-asymptotic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-29 Vinay Kanakeri , Aritra Mitra

This paper establishes sharp dimension-free concentration and expectation bounds for the deviation of a sample cross-covariance matrix from its mean. For sub-Gaussian random vectors, we prove a high-probability operator-norm bound governed…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Jiaheng Chen , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

In this paper we develop inference for high dimensional linear models, with serially correlated errors. We examine Lasso under the assumption of strong mixing in the covariates and error process, allowing for fatter tails in their…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-05 Ilias Chronopoulos , Katerina Chrysikou , George Kapetanios

A notoriously difficult challenge in extreme value theory is the choice of the number $k\ll n$, where $n$ is the total sample size, of extreme data points to consider for inference of tail quantities. Existing theoretical guarantees for…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-05-30 Johannes Lederer , Anne Sabourin , Mahsa Taheri

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

This note describes the concentration phenomenon for a high dimensional sub-gaussian vector \( X \). In the Gaussian case, for any linear operator \( Q \), it holds \( P\bigl( \| Q X \|^{2} - tr (B) > 2 \sqrt{x\, tr(B^{2})} + 2 \| B \| x…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-11 Vladimir Spokoiny

Riemannian Gaussian distributions were initially introduced as basic building blocks for learning models which aim to capture the intrinsic structure of statistical populations of positive-definite matrices (here called covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-16 Salem Said , Simon Heuveline , Cyrus Mostajeran

Modelling non-homogeneous and multi-component data is a problem that challenges scientific researchers in several fields. In general, it is not possible to find a simple and closed form probabilistic model to describe such data. That is why…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-27 Nehla Debbabi , Marie Kratz , Mamadou Mboup

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Nina Gantert , Joscha Prochno , Philipp Tuchel

The aim of this paper is to give a precise asymptotic description of some eigenvalue statistics stemming from random matrix theory. More precisely, we consider random determinants of the GUE, Laguerre, Uniform Gram and Jacobi beta ensembles…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Martina Dal Borgo , Emma Hovhannisyan , Alain Rouault

We study the self-normalized concentration of vector-valued stochastic processes. We focus on bounds for "sub-$\psi$" processes, a well-known and quite general class of process that encompasses a wide variety of well-known tail conditions…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-06 Ben Chugg , Aaditya Ramdas

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Emma S. Simpson , Jonathan A. Tawn

We obtain concentration and large deviation for the sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with heavy-tailed distributions. Our concentration results are concerned with random variables whose distributions satisfy…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Milad Bakhshizadeh , Arian Maleki , Victor H. de la Pena

We study deviation of U-statistics when samples have heavy-tailed distribution so the kernel of the U-statistic does not have bounded exponential moments at any positive point. We obtain an exponential upper bound for the tail of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-30 Milad Bakhshizadeh

Recently, several studies consider the stochastic optimization problem but in a heavy-tailed noise regime, i.e., the difference between the stochastic gradient and the true gradient is assumed to have a finite $p$-th moment (say being upper…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-05-23 Zijian Liu , Zhengyuan Zhou

Score-based diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable empirical success in learning high-dimensional distributions, particularly those exhibiting low-dimensional and multi-modal structures. However, theoretical understanding of their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Jingda Wu , Changxiao Cai

This paper develops a general concentration inequality for the suprema of empirical processes with dependent data. The concentration inequality is obtained by combining generic chaining with a coupling-based strategy. Our framework…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-23 Chiara Amorino , Christian Brownlees , Ankita Ghosh

For linear inverse problems with Gaussian priors and Gaussian observation noise, the posterior is Gaussian, with mean and covariance determined by the conditioning formula. The covariance is the central object for uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Giuseppe Carere , Han Cheng Lie

We consider large non-Hermitian random matrices $X$ with complex, independent, identically distributed centred entries and show that the linear statistics of their eigenvalues are asymptotically Gaussian for test functions having…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-16 Giorgio Cipolloni , László Erdős , Dominik Schröder