Related papers: Microsimulation Model Calibration using Incrementa…

Making good predictions of a physical system using a computer code requires the inputs to be carefully specified. Some of these inputs called control variables have to reproduce physical conditions whereas other inputs, called parameters,…

Bayes linear analysis and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are techniques commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models. In this article we connect these ideas by demonstrating that regression-adjustment ABC algorithms…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has gained popularity as a method for conducting inference and forecasting in complex models, most notably those which are intractable in some sense. In this paper we use ABC to produce probabilistic…

Computational models and simulations are not just appealing because of their intrinsic characteristics across spatiotemporal scales, scalability, and predictive power, but also because the set of problems in cancer biomedicine that can be…

We calibrate a Natural History Model, which is a class of computer simulator used in the health industry, and here has been used to characterise bowel cancer incidence for the UK. The simulator tracks the development of bowel cancer in a…

This paper outlines a Bayesian approach to estimate finite mixtures of Tobit models. The method consists of an MCMC approach that combines Gibbs sampling with data augmentation and is simple to implement. I show through simulations that the…

We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate unknown parameter values, as well as their uncertainties, in Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations of turbulent flows. The ABC method approximates posterior…

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

With larger data at their disposal, scientists are emboldened to tackle complex questions that require sophisticated statistical models. It is not unusual for the latter to have likelihood functions that elude analytical formulations. Even…

We outline a procedure for jointly sampling substitution matrices and multiple sequence alignments, according to an approximate posterior distribution, using an MCMC-based algorithm. This procedure provides an efficient and simple method by…

Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is widely used to infer the parameters of discrete-state continuous-time Markov networks. In this work, we focus on models that are governed by the Chemical Master Equation (the CME). Whilst originally…

Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) is a practical method to validate computationally-derived posterior distributions or their approximations. In this paper, we introduce a new variant of SBC to alleviate several known problems. Our…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a widely used inference method in Bayesian statistics to bypass the point-wise computation of the likelihood. In this paper we develop theoretical bounds for the distance between the statistics used…

Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables statistical inference in simulator-based models whose likelihoods are difficult to calculate but easy to simulate from. ABC constructs a kernel-type approximation to the posterior distribution…

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have enormous potential to perform few-shot in-context learning in the context of medical image analysis. However, safe deployment of these models into real-world clinical practice requires an…

Sensitivity analysis is important to assess the impact of unmeasured confounding in causal inference from observational studies. The marginal sensitivity model (MSM) provides a useful approach in quantifying the influence of unmeasured…

We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with an "improved" Markov chain Monte Carlo (IMCMC) method to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters in subgrid-scale (SGS) closures for large eddy simulations (LES) of…