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Stochastic reaction-diffusion models are employed to represent many complex physical, biological, societal, and ecological systems. The macroscopic reaction rates describing the large-scale kinetics in such systems are effective,…
Lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations have become a vital tool for predictive quality atomistic understanding of complex surface chemical reaction kinetics over a wide range of reaction conditions. In order to expand their practical value…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides asymptotically consistent estimates of intractable posterior expectations as the number of iterations tends to infinity. However, in large data applications, MCMC can be computationally expensive per…
We consider Metropolis Hastings MCMC in cases where the log of the ratio of target distributions is replaced by an estimator. The estimator is based on m samples from an independent online Monte Carlo simulation. Under some conditions on…
Computing the stationary distributions of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) involves solving a set of linear equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or too large, and the equations cannot be solved…
A classical problem for Markov chains is determining their stationary (or steady-state) distribution. This problem has an equally classical solution based on eigenvectors and linear equation systems. However, this approach does not scale to…
We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…
Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions. This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the target, but it…
We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…
Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) are widely used methods for estimating the transition probability matrix in Markov chains and identifying significant relationships between transitions, such as equality.…
Statistical analysis of network is an active research area and the literature counts a lot of papers concerned with network models and statistical analysis of networks. However, very few papers deal with missing data in network analysis and…
We devise a Monte Carlo based method for detecting whether a non-negative Markov chain is stable for a given set of parameter values. More precisely, for a given subset of the parameter space, we develop an algorithm that is capable of…
In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…
We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full…
The mixed effects model for repeated measures (MMRM) has been widely used for the analysis of longitudinal clinical data collected at a number of fixed time points. We propose a robust extension of the MMRM for skewed and heavy-tailed data…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
Modeling the time evolution of discrete sets of items (e.g., genetic mutations) is a fundamental problem in many biomedical applications. We approach this problem through the lens of continuous-time Markov chains, and show that the…
We use a non-Markovian coupling and small modifications of techniques from the theory of finite Markov chains to analyze some Markov chains on continuous state spaces. The first is a Gibbs sampler on narrow contingency tables, the second a…
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are commonly employed for estimating features of a target distribution, particularly for Bayesian inference. A fundamental challenge is determining when these simulations should stop. We consider…