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This paper considers the effect of least squares procedures for nearly unstable linear time series with strongly dependent innovations. Under a general framework and appropriate scaling, it is shown that ordinary least squares procedures…
Empirical Bayes methods can improve inference on unobservable individual effects by borrowing strength across units. This paper proposes nonparametric empirical Bayes confidence intervals (NP-EBCIs) for unobservable individual effects in a…
The proliferation of automated inference algorithms in Bayesian statistics has provided practitioners newfound access to fast, reproducible data analysis and powerful statistical models. Designing automated methods that are also both…
This paper considers the estimation and inference of the low-rank components in high-dimensional matrix-variate factor models, where each dimension of the matrix-variates ($p \times q$) is comparable to or greater than the number of…
A boundary element method (BEM) simulation is used to compare the efficiency of numerical inverse Laplace transform strategies, considering general requirements of Laplace-space numerical approaches. The two-dimensional BEM solution is used…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential part of the Bayesian toolbox for addressing problems in which the likelihood is prohibitively expensive or entirely unknown, making it intractable. ABC defines a…
Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…
In applied Bayesian inference scenarios, users may have access to a large number of pre-existing model evaluations, for example from maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) optimization runs. However, traditional approximate inference techniques make…
Conformal predictors, introduced by Vovk et al. (2005), serve to build prediction intervals by exploiting a notion of conformity of the new data point with previously observed data. In the present paper, we propose a novel method for…
In this article, we propose a novel logistic quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (LQMLE) for general parametric time series models. Compared to the classical Gaussian QMLE and existing robust estimations, it enjoys many distinctive…
Methodology is proposed to uncover structural breaks in functional data that is "fully functional" in the sense that it does not rely on dimension reduction techniques. A thorough asymptotic theory is developed for a fully functional break…
We investigate asymptotic inference in a linear regression model where both response and regressors are functions, using an estimator based on functional principal components analysis. Although this approach is widely used in functional…
Posterior tempering reduces the influence of the likelihood in the calculation of the posterior by raising the likelihood to a fractional power $\alpha$. The resulting power posterior - also known as an $\alpha$-posterior or fractional…
We consider here together the inference questions and the change-point problem in Poisson autoregressions (see Tj{\o}stheim, 2012). The conditional mean (or intensity) of the process is involved as a non-linear function of it past values…
Learning a sequence of tasks without access to i.i.d. observations is a widely studied form of continual learning (CL) that remains challenging. In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off…
The current standard for confidence interval construction in the context of a possibly misspecified model is to use an interval based on the sandwich estimate of variance. These intervals provide asymptotically correct coverage, but…
This paper develops a class of Bayesian non- and semiparametric methods for estimating regression curves and surfaces. The main idea is to model the regression as locally linear, and then place suitable local priors on the local parameters.…
Understanding the quasi-static fracture formation and evolution is essential for assessing the mechanical properties and structural load-bearing capacity of materials. Peridynamics (PD) provides an effective computational method to depict…
Approximate inference methods like the Laplace method, Laplace approximations and variational methods, amongst others, are popular methods when exact inference is not feasible due to the complexity of the model or the abundance of data. In…
A field theory is presented for predicting damage and fracture in quasi-brittle materials. The approach taken here is new and blends a non-local constitutive law with a two-point phase field. In this formulation, the material displacement…