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In this paper we develop a framework for estimating Probability of Default (PD) based on stochastic models governing an appropriate asset value processes. In particular, we build upon a L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and consider…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-25 Kyriakos Georgiou , Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos

We consider estimation of the drift parameter $\vartheta>0$ in a \emph{partially observed} Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type model driven by a mixed fractional Brownian noise. Our framework extends the partially observed model of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-12 Chunhao Cai

Uncertainties are abundant in complex systems. Mathematical models for these systems thus contain random effects or noises. The models are often in the form of stochastic differential equations, with some parameters to be determined by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jiarui Yang , Jinqiao Duan

In this paper, we apply rough paths techniques to provide an approximation of the solution of stochastic functional differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H>1/2$. Here, the involved stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Johanna Garzón , Jorge A. León , Jorge Lozada , Soledad Torres

For an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter 0<H<1/2, one shows the Berry-Ess\'een bound of the least squares estimator of the drift parameter. Thus, a problem left in the previous paper…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-16 Yong Chen , Nenghui Kuang

Assuming that a threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate the parameters. Our theoretical basis is the celebrated ergodic theorem. To use this theorem we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Yaozhong Hu , Yuejuan Xi

First-passage time (FPT) of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process is of immense interest in a variety of contexts. This paper considers an OU process with two boundaries, one of which is absorbing while the other one could be either reflecting…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-03-28 Khem Raj Ghusinga , Vaibhav Srivastava , Abhyudai Singh

A path integral approach to quantum physics has been developed. Fractional path integrals over the paths of the L\'evy flights are defined. It is shown that if the fractality of the Brownian trajectories leads to standard quantum and…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Nick Laskin

For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameter is totally different in the stable, unstable, and explosive cases. Notwithstanding of this trichotomy, we investigate…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-28 Bernard Bercu , Laure Coutin , Nicolas Savy

We address the problem of estimating the drift parameter in a system of $N$ interacting particles driven by additive fractional Brownian motion of Hurst index \( H \geq 1/2 \). Considering continuous observation of the interacting particles…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Chiara Amorino , Ivan Nourdin , Radomyra Shevchenko

We study the problem of parameter estimation for the homogenization limit of multiscale systems involving fractional dynamics. In the case of stochastic multiscale systems driven by Brownian motion, it has been shown that in order for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Pablo Ramses Alonso-Martin , Horatio Boedihardjo , Anastasia Papavasiliou

We investigate the large deviation properties of the maximum likelihood estimators for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with shift. We estimate simultaneously the drift and shift parameters. On the one hand, we establish a large deviation…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-05 Bernard Bercu , Adrien Richou

We develop the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation for the parameters of the finitely mixed multi-mixed fractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (mmfOU) processes, and analyze the consistency and asymptotic normality of this estimator. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-11 Hamidreza Maleki Almani , Tommi Sottinen

In this paper, we study an approximation scheme for L\'evy processes with drift in terms of a representation that is akin to the celebrated Mehler formula for L\'evy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The approximation scheme is based on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Max Nendel

We consider the problem of estimating the roughness of the volatility process in a stochastic volatility model that arises as a nonlinear function of fractional Brownian motion with drift. To this end, we introduce a new estimator that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-17 Xiyue Han , Alexander Schied

Given the observation of a high-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in continuous time, we proceed to the inference of the drift parameter under a row-sparsity assumption. Towards that aim, we consider the negative log-likelihood of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-12 Stéphane Gaïffas , Gustaw Matulewicz

The paper considers the problem of estimating the parameters in a continuous time regression model with a non-Gaussian noise of pulse type. The noise is specified by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by the mixture of a Brownian motion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Evgeny Pchelintsev

In this paper, we will evaluate integrals that define the conditional expectation, variance and characteristic function of stochastic processes with respect to fractional Brownian motion (fBm) for all relevant Hurst indices, i.e. $H \in…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-03-14 Fei Gao , Shuaiqiang Liu , Cornelis W. Oosterlee , Nico M. Temme

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the minimum $L_1$-norm estimator of the drift parameter for fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process driven by a Hermite process.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 B. L. S. Prakasa Rao

Via a Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula from [KPP23], we derive uniform gradient estimates for transition semigroups associated with stochastic differential equations driven by a large class of cylindrical L\'{e}vy processes which includes the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-09 Thanh Dang , Lingjiong Zhu
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