Related papers: Generalized Laplace Inference in Multiple Change-P…
Robust time series analysis is an important subject in statistical modeling. Models based on Gaussian distribution are sensitive to outliers, which may imply in a significant degradation in estimation performance as well as in prediction…
In the statistical inference for long range dependent time series the shape of the limit distribution typically depends on unknown parameters. Therefore, we propose to use subsampling. We show the validity of subsampling for general…
This paper explores generalised probabilistic modelling and uncertainty estimation in comparative LLM-as-a-judge frameworks. We show that existing Product-of-Experts methods are specific cases of a broader framework, enabling diverse…
The Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) has been recently used to perform uncertainty estimation on the predictions of pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs). However, its widespread application is hindered by significant computational…
An open scientific challenge is how to classify events with reliable measures of uncertainty, when we have a mechanistic model of the data-generating process but the distribution over both labels and latent nuisance parameters is different…
We propose a generalized double Pareto prior for Bayesian shrinkage estimation and inferences in linear models. The prior can be obtained via a scale mixture of Laplace or normal distributions, forming a bridge between the Laplace and…
We introduce inferential methods for prediction based on functional random effects in generalized functional mixed effects models. This is similar to the inference for random effects in generalized linear mixed effects models (GLMMs), but…
The graphical lasso is a widely used algorithm for fitting undirected Gaussian graphical models. However, for inference on functionals of edge values in the learned graph, standard tools lack formal statistical guarantees, such as control…
Latent variable models for ordinal data represent a useful tool in different fields of research in which the constructs of interest are not directly observable. In such models, problems related to the integration of the likelihood function…
This is Part II of a two-part work on the estimation for a multi-layer generalized linear model (ML-GLM) in large system limits. In Part I, we had analyzed the asymptotic performance of an exact MMSE estimator, and obtained a set of coupled…
We introduce a new copula-based correction for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) within the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models. While INLA is usually…
Local projections (LPs) are widely used for impulse response analysis, but Bayesian methods face challenges due to the absence of a likelihood function. Existing approaches rely on pseudo-likelihoods, which often result in poorly calibrated…
We propose a pointwise inference algorithm for high-dimensional linear models with time-varying coefficients. The method is based on a novel combination of the nonparametric kernel smoothing technique and a Lasso bias-corrected ridge…
Laplace approximations are a standard tool for computationally efficient inference in latent Gaussian models, but they fail for quantile regression with the asymmetric Laplace likelihood because the observed Hessian vanishes almost…
The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is pivotal in statistical inference, yet its application is often hindered by the absence of closed-form solutions for many models. This poses challenges in real-time computation scenarios,…
A simultaneous change-point detection and estimation in a piece-wise constant model is a common task in modern statistics. If, in addition, the whole estimation can be performed automatically, in just one single step without going through…
Latent variable models have been widely applied in different fields of research in which the constructs of interest are not directly observable, so that one or more latent variables are required to reduce the complexity of the data. In…
We introduce Generalized Integrated Gradients (GIG), a formal extension of the Integrated Gradients (IG) (Sundararajan et al., 2017) method for attributing credit to the input variables of a predictive model. GIG improves IG by explaining a…
Bayesian hierarchical models with latent Gaussian layers have proven very flexible in capturing complex stochastic behavior and hierarchical structures in high-dimensional spatial and spatio-temporal data. Whereas simulation-based Bayesian…
The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a popular model for analyzing and forecasting extreme weather data. To increase prediction accuracy, spatial information is often pooled via a latent Gaussian process (GP) on the GEV…