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Causal effect estimation from observational data is a challenging problem, especially with high dimensional data and in the presence of unobserved variables. The available data-driven methods for tackling the problem either provide an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jiji Zhang , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

This study introduces a data-driven, machine learning-based method to detect suitable control variables and instruments for assessing the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data. Our approach tests the joint…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Nicolas Apfel , Julia Hatamyar , Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

Machine learning systems are often used in settings where individuals adapt their features to obtain a desired outcome. In such settings, strategic behavior leads to a sharp loss in model performance in deployment. In this work, we aim to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Yatong Chen , Jialu Wang , Yang Liu

State-of-the-art machine learning models require access to significant amount of annotated data in order to achieve the desired level of performance. While unlabelled data can be largely available and even abundant, annotation process can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Rahaf Aljundi , Nikolay Chumerin , Daniel Olmeda Reino

Animals exhibit an innate ability to learn regularities of the world through interaction. By performing experiments in their environment, they are able to discern the causal factors of variation and infer how they affect the world's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-10 Sumedh A. Sontakke , Arash Mehrjou , Laurent Itti , Bernhard Schölkopf

Often in prediction tasks, the predictive model itself can influence the distribution of the target variable, a phenomenon termed performative prediction. Generally, this influence stems from strategic actions taken by stakeholders with a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-14 Daniele Bracale , Subha Maity , Felipe Maia Polo , Seamus Somerstep , Moulinath Banerjee , Yuekai Sun

As the complexity of machine learning (ML) models increases, resulting in a lack of prediction explainability, several methods have been developed to explain a model's behavior in terms of the training data points that most influence the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Umang Bhatt , Isabel Chien , Muhammad Bilal Zafar , Adrian Weller

As predictive models -- e.g., from machine learning -- give likely outcomes, they may be used to reason on the effect of an intervention, a causal-inference task. The increasing complexity of health data has opened the door to a plethora of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-17 Matthieu Doutreligne , Gaël Varoquaux

This paper discusses the problem of causal query in observational data with hidden variables, with the aim of seeking the change of an outcome when "manipulating" a variable while given a set of plausible confounding variables which affect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le

Shortcut learning, in which models make use of easy-to-represent but unstable associations, is a major failure mode for robust machine learning. We study a flexible, causally-motivated approach to training robust predictors by discouraging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Maggie Makar , Ben Packer , Dan Moldovan , Davis Blalock , Yoni Halpern , Alexander D'Amour

Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya , Yuta Umezu , Ichiro Takeuchi

Causal representation learning has emerged as the center of action in causal machine learning research. In particular, multi-domain datasets present a natural opportunity for showcasing the advantages of causal representation learning over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Kartik Ahuja , Amin Mansouri , Yixin Wang

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency -…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-22 Zeyu Liu , Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Kun Zhang

We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Michael Newey , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

Investigation of machine learning algorithms robust to changes between the training and test distributions is an active area of research. In this paper we explore a special type of dataset shift which we call class-dependent domain shift.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-13 Tigran Galstyan , Hrant Khachatrian , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

Interference bias is a major impediment to identifying causal effects in real-world settings. For example, vaccination reduces the transmission of a virus in a population such that everyone benefits -- even those who are not treated. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Michael O'Riordan , Ciarán M. Gilligan-Lee

We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-22 Felix Schur , Niklas Pfister , Peng Ding , Sach Mukherjee , Jonas Peters

Among the most critical limitations of deep learning NLP models are their lack of interpretability, and their reliance on spurious correlations. Prior work proposed various approaches to interpreting the black-box models to unveil the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Xiaochuang Han , Yulia Tsvetkov

Causal understanding is important in many disciplines of science and engineering, where we seek to understand how different factors in the system causally affect an experiment or situation and pave a pathway towards creating effective or…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Miguel Arana-Catania , Weisi Guo