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Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-19 Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Frances Ding , Yixin Wang

Many reinforcement learning (RL) environments consist of independent entities that interact sparsely. In such environments, RL agents have only limited influence over other entities in any particular situation. Our idea in this work is that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Maximilian Seitzer , Bernhard Schölkopf , Georg Martius

As machine learning is increasingly deployed in the real world, it is paramount that we develop the tools necessary to analyze the decision-making of the models we train and deploy to end-users. Recently, researchers have shown that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Andrew Silva , Rohit Chopra , Matthew Gombolay

The cause-to-effect analysis can help us decompose all the likely causes of a problem, such as an undesirable business situation or unintended harm to the individual(s). This implies that we can identify how the problems are inherited, rank…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Moses Openja , Gabriel Laberge , Foutse Khomh

In many classification datasets, the task labels are spuriously correlated with some input attributes. Classifiers trained on such datasets often rely on these attributes for prediction, especially when the spurious correlation is high, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Abhinav Kumar , Amit Deshpande , Amit Sharma

The inaccessibility of controlled randomized trials due to inherent constraints in many fields of science has been a fundamental issue in causal inference. In this paper, we focus on distinguishing the cause from effect in the bivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-23 Jean-Francois Ton , Dino Sejdinovic , Kenji Fukumizu

This paper serves as a starting point for machine learning researchers, engineers and students who are interested in but not yet familiar with causal inference. We start by laying out an important set of assumptions that are collectively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Daniel Jiwoong Im , Kyunghyun Cho

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-12 Guy Horowitz , Nir Rosenfeld

Evaluation of treatment effects and more general estimands is typically achieved via parametric modelling, which is unsatisfactory since model misspecification is likely. Data-adaptive model building (e.g. statistical/machine learning) is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Oliver Hines , Oliver Dukes , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

In this work, we propose a novel generative method to identify the causal impact and apply it to prediction tasks. We conduct causal impact analysis using interventional and counterfactual perspectives. First, applying interventions, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Soma Bandyopadhyay , Sudeshna Sarkar

Machine learning systems such as large scale recommendation systems or natural language processing systems are usually trained on billions of training points and are associated with hundreds of billions or trillions of parameters. Improving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Michael Kounavis , Ousmane Dia , Ilqar Ramazanli

Methods of transfer learning try to combine knowledge from several related tasks (or domains) to improve performance on a test task. Inspired by causal methodology, we relax the usual covariate shift assumption and assume that it holds true…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-25 Mateo Rojas-Carulla , Bernhard Schölkopf , Richard Turner , Jonas Peters

Accurately measuring discrimination in machine learning-based automated decision systems is required to address the vital issue of fairness between subpopulations and/or individuals. Any bias in measuring discrimination can lead to either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-23 Rūta Binkytė , Sami Zhioua , Yassine Turki

Good models require good training data. For overparameterized deep models, the causal relationship between training data and model predictions is increasingly opaque and poorly understood. Influence analysis partially demystifies training's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Zayd Hammoudeh , Daniel Lowd

In this work, we focus on the use of influence functions to identify relevant training examples that one might hope "explain" the predictions of a machine learning model. One shortcoming of influence functions is that the training examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-27 Elnaz Barshan , Marc-Etienne Brunet , Gintare Karolina Dziugaite

The ability to learn and act in novel situations is still a prerogative of animate intelligence, as current machine learning methods mostly fail when moving beyond the standard i.i.d. setting. What is the reason for this discrepancy? Most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Niki Kilbertus , Giambattista Parascandolo , Bernhard Schölkopf

With the resurgence of interest in neural networks, representation learning has re-emerged as a central focus in artificial intelligence. Representation learning refers to the discovery of useful encodings of data that make domain-relevant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-19 Karl Ridgeway

Imitation learning practitioners have often noted that conditioning policies on previous actions leads to a dramatic divergence between "held out" error and performance of the learner in situ. Interactive approaches can provably address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Jonathan Spencer , Sanjiban Choudhury , Arun Venkatraman , Brian Ziebart , J. Andrew Bagnell

Causal inference is often portrayed as fundamentally distinct from predictive modeling, with its own terminology, goals, and intellectual challenges. But at its core, causal inference is simply a structured instance of prediction under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Carlos Fernández-Loría

Causal effect moderation investigates how the effect of interventions (or treatments) on outcome variables changes based on observed characteristics of individuals, known as potential effect moderators. With advances in data collection,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Soham Bakshi , Walter Dempsey , Snigdha Panigrahi
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