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Related papers: Importance sampling for McKean-Vlasov SDEs

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The mean field limits of systems of interacting diffusions (also called stochastic interacting particle systems (SIPS)) have been intensively studied since McKean \cite{mckean1966class}. The interacting diffusions pave a way to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Lukasz Szpruch , Shuren Tan , Alvin Tse

Importance weighting is a general way to adjust Monte Carlo integration to account for draws from the wrong distribution, but the resulting estimate can be highly variable when the importance ratios have a heavy right tail. This routinely…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-12 Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman , Yuling Yao , Jonah Gabry

In recent decades, a number of profound theorems concerning approximation of hard counting problems have appeared. These include estimation of the permanent, estimating the volume of a convex polyhedron, and counting (approximately) the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-09-07 Isabel Beichl , Alathea Jensen

This paper deals with the estimation of rare event probabilities using importance sampling (IS), where an optimal proposal distribution is computed with the cross-entropy (CE) method. Although, IS optimized with the CE method leads to an…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-05 Patrick Héas

We propose a global optimization algorithm based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling framework. In this framework, the objective function is normalized to be a probabilistic density function (pdf), based on which a sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-15 Bin Liu

This paper focuses on the study of an original combination of the Multilevel Monte Carlo method introduced by Giles [10] and the popular importance sampling technique. To compute the optimal choice of the parameter involved in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-05 Mohamed Ben Alaya , Kaouther Hajji , Ahmed Kebaier

This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Boualem Djehiche , Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist

We show that for any multiple-try Metropolis algorithm, one can always accept the proposal and evaluate the importance weight that is needed to correct for the bias without extra computational cost. This results in a general, convenient,…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-03 Guanxun Li , Aaron Smith , Quan Zhou

Monte Carlo methods are widely used to estimate observables in many-body quantum systems. However, conventional sampling schemes often require a large number of samples to achieve sufficient accuracy. In this work we propose the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-29 Wenxuan Zhang , Dingzu Wang , Dario Poletti

Importance Sampling methods are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions or some of their moments. In its standard approach, samples are drawn from a single proposal distribution and weighted properly. However, since the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

This paper studies the numerical methods to approximate the solutions for a sort of McKean-Vlasov neutral stochastic differential delay equations (MV-NSDDEs) that the growth of the drift coefficients is super-linear. First, We obtain that…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-04 Yuanping Cui , Xiaoyue Li , Yi Liu , Chenggui Yuan

This paper surveys some well-established approaches on the approximation of Bayes factors used in Bayesian model choice, mostly as covered in Chen et al. (2000). Our focus here is on methods that are based on importance sampling strategies…

Computation · Statistics 2009-10-14 Jean-Michel Marin , Christian P. Robert

We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Dale Schuurmans , Finnegan Southey

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) is an increasingly used methodology where several proposal densities are used to approximate integrals, generally involving target probability density functions. The use of several proposals allows for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-12 Rahul Mukerjee , Víctor Elvira

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-03 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

We introduce a new class of numerical methods for solving McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations, which are relevant in the context of distribution-dependent or mean-field models, under super-linear growth conditions for both the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Jiamin Jian , Qingshuo Song , Xiaojie Wang , Zhongqiang Zhang , Yuying Zhao

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) methods are increasingly used for the approximation of distributions and related intractable integrals in the context of Bayesian inference. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithms are a subclass of AIS…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-08 Víctor Elvira , Émilie Chouzenoux

In many stochastic problems, the output of interest depends on an input random vector mainly through a single random variable (or index) via an appropriate univariate transformation of the input. We exploit this feature by proposing an…

Computation · Statistics 2021-11-16 Erik Hintz , Marius Hofert , Christiane Lemieux , Yoshihiro Taniguchi

Modified Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (MHMC) methods combine the ideas behind two popular sampling approaches: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and importance sampling. As in the HMC case, the bulk of the computational cost of MHMC algorithms lies…

We present a generic path-dependent importance sampling algorithm where the Girsanov induced change of probability on the path space is represented by a sequence of neural networks taking the past of the trajectory as an input. At each…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-08 Benjamin Virrion