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Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-15 Peiran Liu , Adrian E. Raftery

The format of graphing algorithms for genomic data has been a debate in recent biotechnology. In this paper, we discuss the construction of population graphs using said genomic data. We first examine the GENPOFAD distance measurement,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-15 Kimberly Ayers , Maxwell Kooiker

High resolution datasets of population density which accurately map sparsely-distributed human populations do not exist at a global scale. Typically, population data is obtained using censuses and statistical modeling. More recently,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-12-19 Tobias G. Tiecke , Xianming Liu , Amy Zhang , Andreas Gros , Nan Li , Gregory Yetman , Talip Kilic , Siobhan Murray , Brian Blankespoor , Espen B. Prydz , Hai-Anh H. Dang

Branching processes are models used to describe populations that reproduce and die over time. In the classical setting, an individual's reproductive capacity remains constant throughout its lifetime. However, in real-world situations,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Daniela Bertacchi , Elena Montanaro , Fabio Zucca

Demographic indicators are an essential element in considering various problems in the social economy, such as predicting economic fluctuations and establishing policies. The literature widely discusses the growth of the world population or…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-02 Takahiro Yoshida , Rim Er-Rbib , Morito Tsutsumi

Repetitions within a given genealogical tree provides some information about the degree of consanguineity of a population. They can be analyzed with techniques usually employed in statistical physics when dealing with fixed point…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Paolo De Los Rios , Oscar Pla

Scaling has been proposed as a powerful tool to analyze the properties of complex systems, and in particular for cities where it describes how various properties change with population. The empirical study of scaling on a wide range of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-04-18 Jules Depersin , Marc Barthelemy

The prospect of informed and optimal decision-making regarding the operation and maintenance (O&M) of structures provides impetus to the development of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. A probabilistic risk-based framework for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-27 Aidan J. Hughes , Paul Gardner , Keith Worden

Understanding how population age structure shapes COVID-19 burden is crucial for pandemic preparedness, yet common summary measures such as median age ignore key distributional features like skewness, bimodality, and the proportional weight…

For measuring the strength of visually-observed subpopulation differences, the Population Difference Criterion is proposed to assess the statistical significance of visually observed subpopulation differences. It addresses the following…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-21 Xi Yang , Jan Hannig , Katherine A. Hoadley , Iain Carmichael , J. S. Marron

Understanding human mobility patterns -- how people move in their everyday lives -- is an interdisciplinary research field. It is a question with roots back to the 19th century that has been dramatically revitalized with the recent increase…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-02-08 Minjin Lee , Petter Holme

In low and middle income countries, household surveys are a valuable source of information for a range of health and demographic indicators. Increasingly, subnational estimates are required for targeting interventions and evaluating…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-21 Katie Wilson , Jon Wakefield

We establish connections between the absorption probabilities of a class of birth-death processes with killing, and the stationary tail of a related class of birth-death processes with catastrophes. The major ingredients of the proofs are a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Ellen Baake , Fernando Cordero , Enrico Di Gaspero , Anton Wakolbinger

The science of cities seeks to understand and explain regularities observed in the world's major urban systems. Modelling the population evolution of cities is at the core of this science and of all urban studies. Quantitatively, the most…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-10-14 Vincent Verbavatz , Marc Barthelemy

Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-08 Piero Birello , Michele Re Fiorentin , Boxuan Wang , Vittoria Colizza , Eugenio Valdano

The existing life table method needs to calculate the age-specific mortality first, not only has too many and complicated calculation steps, but also introduces the multiple approximation to bring error. This paper redefines the probability…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-21 Weidong Huang

Consider a graph whose vertices are populated by identical objects, together with an algorithm for the time-evolution of the number of objects placed at each of the vertices. The discrete dynamics of these objects can be observed and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-02-13 Emil Prodan

Crime rates per capita are used virtually everywhere to rank and compare cities. However, their usage relies on a strong linear assumption that crime increases at the same pace as the number of people in a region. In this paper, we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-03-17 Marcos Oliveira

Most species are structured and influenced by processes that either increased or reduced gene flow between populations. However, most population genetic inference methods ignore population structure and reconstruct a history characterized…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-11-10 Olivier Mazet , Willy Rodríguez , Simona Grusea , Simon Boitard , Lounès Chikhi

A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions, which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-30 Ron W. Nielsen