Related papers: Adaptive Sequential MCMC for Combined State and Pa…
A state-space model is a time-series model that has an unobserved latent process from which we take noisy measurements over time. The observations are conditionally independent given the latent process and the latent process itself is…
We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…
This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are ubiquitous tools for simulation-based inference in many fields but designing and identifying good MCMC samplers is still an open question. This paper introduces a novel MCMC algorithm, namely,…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are not only a popular tool in the analysis of state space models, but offer an alternative to MCMC in situations where Bayesian inference must proceed via simulation. This paper introduces a new SMC…
State space models contain time-indexed parameters, termed states, as well as static parameters, simply termed parameters. The problem of inferring both static parameters as well as states simultaneously, based on time-indexed observations,…
State space models (SSMs) are a flexible approach to modeling complex time series. However, inference in SSMs is often computationally prohibitive for long time series. Stochastic gradient MCMC (SGMCMC) is a popular method for scalable…
State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…
State estimation that combines observational data with mathematical models is central to many applications and is commonly addressed through filtering methods, such as ensemble Kalman filters. In this article, we examine the signal-tracking…
This paper presents an adaptive Kalman filter for a linear dynamic system perturbed by an additive disturbance. The objective is to estimate both of the state and the unknown disturbance concurrently, while learning the disturbance as a…
Particle MCMC is a class of algorithms that can be used to analyse state-space models. They use MCMC moves to update the parameters of the models, and particle filters to propose values for the path of the state-space model. Currently the…
We introduce a new analysis of an adaptive mixture method that combines outputs of two constituent filters running in parallel to model an unknown desired signal. This adaptive mixture is shown to achieve the mean square error (MSE)…
We present doubly stochastic gradient MCMC, a simple and generic method for (approximate) Bayesian inference of deep generative models (DGMs) in a collapsed continuous parameter space. At each MCMC sampling step, the algorithm randomly…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
Machine learning (ML) tools such as encoder-decoder convolutional neural networks (CNN) can represent incredibly complex nonlinear functions which map between combinations of images and scalars. For example, CNNs can be used to map…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used in machine learning. One of the major problems with MCMC is the question of how to design chains that mix fast over the whole state space; in particular, how to select the parameters…
This paper deals with the state estimation of linear time-invariant systems using distributed observers with local sampled-data measurement and aperiodic communication. Each observer agent perceives partial information of the system to be…
Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that…
A large class of spatial models contains intractable normalizing functions, such as spatial lattice models, interaction spatial point processes, and social network models. Bayesian inference for such models is challenging since the…