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We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-17 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , James Hensman , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. The associated sensitivity to initial conditions is a significant obstacle in forecasting the weather and other geophysical fluid flows. Data assimilation is the process whereby the uncertainty in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-11-03 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Jonathan Demaeyer , Colin Grudzien , Patrick Raanes , Stephane Vannitsem

This paper contains the latest installment of the authors' project on developing ensemble based data assimilation methodology for high dimensional fluid dynamics models. The algorithm presented here is a particle filter that combines model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-22 Colin Cotter , Dan Crisan , Darryl Holm , Wei Pan , Igor Shevchenko

The Bayesian smoothing equations are generally intractable for systems described by nonlinear stochastic differential equations and discrete-time measurements. Gaussian approximations are a computationally efficient way to approximate the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Juha Ala-Luhtala , Simo Särkkä , Robert Piché

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Christos Merkatas , Simo Särkkä

Gaussian mixture filters for nonlinear systems usually rely on severe approximations when calculating mixtures in the prediction and filtering step. Thus, offline approximations of noise densities by Gaussian mixture densities to reduce the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-02 Ondŕej Straka , Uwe D. Hanebeck

The archetypal system demonstrating stochastic resonance is nothing more than a threshold triggered device. It consists of a periodic modulated input and noise. Every time an output crosses the threshold the signal is recorded. Such a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-10 Krzysztof Szczepaniec , Bartlomiej Dybiec

Gravitational wave detectors will need optimal signal-processing algorithms to extract weak signals from the detector noise. Most algorithms designed to date are based on the unrealistic assumption that the detector noise may be modeled as…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-07 Bruce Allen , Jolien D. E. Creighton , Eanna E. Flanagan , Joseph D. Romano

Multiscale stochastic dynamical systems have been widely adopted to a variety of scientific and engineering problems due to their capability of depicting complex phenomena in many real world applications. This work is devoted to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-02 Lingyu Feng , Ting Gao , Min Dai , Jinqiao Duan

We establish a slow manifold for a fast-slow stochastic evolutionary system with anomalous diffusion, where both fast and slow components are influ- enced by white noise. Furthermore, we prove the exponential tracking property for the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-10-15 Hina Zulfiqar , Ziying He , Meihua Yang , Jinqiao Duan

Data assimilation methodologies are designed to incorporate noisy observations of a physical system into an underlying model in order to infer the properties of the state of the system. Filters refer to a class of data assimilation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-10-13 C. E. A. Brett , K. F. Lam , K. J. H. Law , D. S. McCormick , M. R. Scott , A. M. Stuart

We introduce a new analysis method to deal with stationary non-Gaussian noises in gravitational wave detectors in terms of the independent component analysis. First, we consider the simplest case where the detector outputs are linear…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-11-03 Soichiro Morisaki , Jun'ichi Yokoyama , Kazunari Eda , Yousuke Itoh

When signals are measured through physical sensors, they are perturbed by noise. To reduce noise, low-pass filters are commonly employed in order to attenuate high frequency components in the incoming signal, regardless if they come from…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-08 Alejandro J. Ordóñez-Conejo , Armin Lederer , Sandra Hirche

In a recent paper we described a novel approach to the detection and parameter estimation of a non-Gaussian stochastic background of gravitational waves. In this work we propose an improved version of the detection procedure, preserving…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-08-22 Matteo Ballelli , Riccardo Buscicchio , Barbara Patricelli , Anirban Ain , Giancarlo Cella

We present a new strategy for filtering high-dimensional multiscale systems characterized by high-order non-Gaussian statistics using observations from leading-order moments. A closed stochastic-statistical modeling framework suitable for…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2024-07-09 Di Qi , Jian-Guo Liu

With the rapid increase of valuable observational, experimental and simulating data for complex systems, great efforts are being devoted to discovering governing laws underlying the evolution of these systems. However, the existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Yang Li , Jinqiao Duan

A general formalism is developed to construct a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are therefore internal to the system and not externally specified. For…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-09-15 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

Estimation of a dynamical system's latent state subject to sensor noise and model inaccuracies remains a critical yet difficult problem in robotics. While Kalman filters provide the optimal solution in the least squared sense for linear and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-02-10 Fahira Afzal Maken , Fabio Ramos , Lionel Ott

Signal processing in non-Gaussian noise environment is addressed in this paper. For many real-life situations, the additive noise process present in the system is found to be dominantly non-Gaussian. The problem of detection and estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-23 Jugalkishore K. Banoth , Pradip Sircar

The theory of slow manifolds is an important tool in the study of deterministic dynamical systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of relevant degrees of freedom in a model, thereby often resulting in a considerable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-07-01 George W A Constable , Alan J McKane , Tim Rogers